It seems unlikely that Friedrich Merz, Germany's chancellor and leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), had a relaxing holiday.
The 70-year-old this week returned from a three-week break, in which he reportedly read Pope Leo's encyclical on AI, Magnifica humanitas (Magnificent humanity).
But it's not his serious beach read that will be causing stress – rather it's what's been going on at home.
With record-breaking heat and a prolonged drought sparking an increase in illness and death, disruption, drought and wildfires, it's been nothing short of a dramatic summer in Germany.
Add to that drone attacks, state elections, a cabinet reshuffle after a scandal involving a high profile minister and falling public support for the government, it's set to be a turbulent autumn.
We look at the big challenges facing Germany as the government gets back to work.
Explosive state elections
With a few key votes coming up, all eyes are on eastern Germany.
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt will elect a new state parliament on September 6th, with the results set to send shockwaves throughout the German political landscape.
Several polls suggest the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) may get more than 40 percent of the vote. That could be enough for the party – classified by the state’s domestic intelligence agency as a right-wing extremist organisation – to secure an absolute majority, allowing them to govern alone.
That would be a huge blow to the central government – a coalition of the CDU, its Bavarian sister party the CSU and the centre-left Social Democrats.
The CDU, which currently leads a coalition in the state, is hovering around 18 points behind the AfD in the polls.
It's a significant moment because mainstream parties have vowed not to collaborate with the AfD, in what's known as the Brandmauer or firewall. But we haven't yet seen the anti-immigration party secure such a strong victory in state elections. Watch this space.
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Meanwhile, other important state votes are coming up, including in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20th.
In Berlin, the far-left Die Linke is polling at around 20-22 percent according to recent surveys, with the AfD and CDU not far behind – both are hovering around 18 percent.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD are polling at 36 percent with the SPD in second spot with 29 percent.
READ ALSO: 'No promises' - Decoding the political slogans plastered all over Berlin
Controversial reforms
Have we mentioned the reforms? Sorry, we absolutely have. Once, twice, three times. Probably even more.
Unfortunately – for everyone in Germany – the bickering between politicians over how to keep the pension system afloat, save money in the budget, cut bureaucracy and kick start the economy continues at every turn.
Just before the break, parliament agreed a health insurance austerity package, which will see higher co-payments for medicines, restrictions on free family coverage for spouses and partners, and capped reimbursements for doctors and hospitals.
But sticking points remain, particularly around pensions, a planned sugar tax and how to plug funding shortfalls (more on that below).
Merz wants the pension reform passed by the end of 2026, while the major tax changes – aimed at supporting lower-income earners – are due to take effect from January 2027. So expect plenty more wrangling before this is settled.
READ ALSO:
- What Germany's planned pension reform means for you
- Germany's health insurance austerity package approved in parliament
Tightening belts for the budget
The first week of parliamentary sessions, which kicks off in the week beginning September 7th, traditionally focuses on the budget.
Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) is proposing record new borrowing of €118.7 billion for 2027. After the debt-financed special funds for the Bundeswehr infrastructure and climate neutrality are included, the figure rises to more than €200 billion.
With planned cuts to measures such as parental allowance, housing benefit, child support advances and the climate fund, budget negotiations are likely to be even more contentious than usual.
And there is still no way of knowing whether further economic burdens will hit, such as from international conflicts.
The medium-term outlook is also bleak. According to the cabinet proposal, the funding shortfall is expected to reach €22 billion for 2028, €38 billion for 2029 and €47 billion by 2030.
Public support for the chancellor in free fall
Recent polling suggests the public is increasingly unhappy with Merz.
A survey, released on Tuesday, by polling institute INSA for Bild gave Merz the rather ominous title of Germany’s most unpopular politician. He came last in the ranking, behind Economic Affairs Minister Katherina Reiche, also of the CDU.
It’s perhaps no surprise that a majority of Germans doubt Merz will remain chancellor until the next nationwide election in 2029.
If you’re wondering who came first, that would be Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), who remains Germany’s most popular politician. He is followed by the new state premier of Baden-Württemberg, Cem Özdemir (Greens); North Rhine-Westphalia’s state premier, Hendrik Wüst (CDU); and Manuela Schwesig (SPD).
At the same time, divisions are bubbling away within the governing coalition, particularly over climate policy and the reforms mentioned above.
Climate change
Although summer is coming to an end, the effects of the extreme weather events this summer are still being felt in Germany and beyond.
As well as more than 14,000 heat-related deaths, the country has seen wildfires and serious impacts to harvests. Meanwhile, rivers have fallen so low they have affected crucial navigation routes.
Merz has faced backlash over his silence through the summer on these important issues. But now it looks like he is trying to make up for lost time.
On his first day back after the Sommerpause, Merz visited Hürtgenwald in western Germany, to thank the emergency crews who helped contain a major wildfire on the border with Belgium.
At the start of a two-day retreat outside Berlin with members of the cabinet on Tuesday, Merz told reporters: "We have to further curb climate change and at the same time better adapt to the consequences.
Merz added that Germany had to "draw the long-term lessons from extreme situations such as this summer of heat." He said that the biggest EU economy had suffered "significant damage" over recent months.
But will the government act with some urgency on this issue, as the Green party (and others) have called for?
That much remains to be seen.
READ ALSO: Germany can expect more intense weather extremes, expert warns
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