Political debate in the run up to Germany’s recent national election was largely focused on security and the economy. But a third big issue that impacts everyone in the country was barely mentioned: climate change.
Now, with prospective Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) seemingly laser-focused on curbing migration and boosting the economy, and the Greens pushed into the opposition, the future of Germany’s climate policy in the near-term looks shaky at best.
After its release on Wednesday, environmental advocacy groups lined up to criticise the new government's coalition pact for its poor climate credentials. A Friday’s for Future spokesperson called it “a denial of reality in climate policy”.
They warn that, left unchecked, the conservative-led government looks ready to backpedal on some hard-fought climate protections.
How does the coalition agreement address climate policy?
A hint at the new government’s priorities is found in a content analysis of their coalition agreement. Clean Energy Wire reported that the 146-page document contains the word climate 80 times whereas the same document by the previous traffic-light government had mentioned it nearly 200 times.
Incoming leaders have promised to stick largely to Germany’s energy transition policies, but there are hints that climate policy is being de-prioritised.
"The CDU/CSU and SPD are not providing answers to the problems of our time, but rather exacerbating them,” said Florian Kubitz, CEO of German environmental advocacy group Robin Wood, in a written statement shared with The Local.
“They are relying on more economic growth as a panacea for everything,” he said, adding that industrial growth has been among the chief contributors to climate catastrophe and the extinction of species.
Linda Kastrup of Fridays for Future Duisburg feels similarly. In a press release she said: “The coalition agreement reads as if we were in the ‘90s. As if there had never been ten years of the Paris Climate Agreement, ever more blatant heat extremes, floods and forest fires…”
She noted that climate issues are already impacting German lives and the economy, citing low water levels in Lake Constance and the Rhine River that are disrupting shipping traffic as the latest example.
However, some environmental groups don't see the prospective government’s plan as all bad.
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Energy policy think-tank Agora Energiewende criticised a plan to offset emissions by buying carbon credits, but praised the decision to stick to high-level EU emissions reductions goals. The Initiative Climate Neutral Germany said that overall in the stated plans, “the light outweighs the shade”.
Points of concern
One policy that is diametrically opposed to climate protection is the government's plans to build more gas-fired power plants. The country wants to built up to 20 Gigawatts capacity by 2030.
This comes as Germany is in the process of building LNG terminals to increase its capacity for receiving methane fuel from the US and other countries, purportedly to secure much-needed gas supplies. But studies by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) found that further gas terminals aren’t actually needed for energy security.
Dr. Franziska Holz, Deputy Head of Energy, Transportation, and Environment at DIW previously told The Local: “From now on, Germany should expand its use of renewable energies and accelerate electrification” instead.
Another major concern is the scrapping of the heating law.
The heating law, introduced by Former Finance Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), was intended to incentivise a switch to clean heating systems like heat pumps, and end the installation of gas or oil-powered systems.
Though the final bill contained a long list of carve-outs and exceptions, it essentially required new heating systems to be powered primarily by clean energy.
READ ALSO: What Germany's new coalition pact means for foreign residents
But, spurred on by the fossil-fuel lobby, the law faced tremendous backlash in the media, as well as from conservative and right-wing politicians who said it took away consumers’ choice.
The coalition agreement does suggest, however, that subsidies for installing new heat pumps should remain in place.
Meanwhile, Germany’s planned coal phase-out will now happen by 2038 at the latest -- a step backward from the prior government’s plan to bring the end date forward to 2030.
The more ambitious deadline had been brought forward whilst a climate justice movement standing in opposition to massive open pit coal mines in western Germany had been making international headlines.
In personal finance, the commuters' allowance (Pendlerpauschale) will allow drivers to write-off more of their travel expenses. This could be viewed as further subsidising car use - though people who walk, cycle or take the train to work are eligible for the tax write-off as well.
The black-red coalition also aims to reduce taxes for air travel, while continuing to tax train travel at the same rate.
Airlines have increasingly complained about high taxes in Germany, but they have still avoided VAT and kerosene taxes that are applied to railway companies, which is part of why train tickets remain comparatively expensive.
READ ALSO: Budget airline Ryanair to cut flights from Berlin
Climate advocates take to the streets
To increase pressure on the incoming government to do more for climate, Fridays For Future has organised rallies across Germany on April 11th.
“This coalition agreement shows that the Union and SPD have not understood the climate crisis as the central threat it represents,” said Frieda Egeling, a spokesperson for the group in a press release. “We will take to the streets…and make it clear that we will not accept climate destruction!"
A list of related demonstrations, set to begin at various times on Friday afternoon, can be found here.
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