Voters in the states of Thuringia and Saxony went to the polls in regional elections on Sunday.
As was predicted by recent polls the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won the biggest share of votes in Thuringia, marking the first time that a far-right party has won a state election in Germany since WWII.
In Saxony the AfD also had a strong showing, if not the leading position. There they were narrowly beaten by the conservative CDU party.
Meanwhile the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a new party to the state ballots, had the third biggest share of votes in both states.
Germany’s multi-party system of governance, and other parties’ refusal to join a coalition with the AfD means that the anti-immigration party won’t immediately step into a leading position. But both states are sure to see their parliaments completely rearranged, with the current federal government coalition parties being largely voted out of these state parliaments.
Germany newspaper Bild described the outcome as "a political earthquake". Here’s what we can expect.
How will the state parliaments change?
Despite winning the biggest share of votes in Thuringia (near 33 percent) the AfD is not expected to lead the governing coalition in the state.
Preventing them from taking the helm is the so-called Brandmauer or firewall, which is essentially an agreement among Germany’s mainstream parties not to join a coalition with far-right parties. While it's not a formal rule, the firewall holds significant weight in Germany because memories of the Nazis, who also scored an initial state election success in Thuringia, makes working with far-right parties highly taboo.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged mainstream parties to maintain the firewall against the far-right AfD on Monday. "All democratic parties are now called upon to form stable governments without right-wing extremists," Scholz said on Facebook.
Members of the CDU party in Thuringia have already said they have no intention of inviting the AfD into a governing coalition. But that means the centre-right party will need to partner up with either the Left party, or the left-wing nationalist BSW. Whether or not these parties can cooperate functionally remains to be seen.
Besides the overall approval of far-right and centre-right politics in the former eastern States, Sunday’s election results can be seen as a rejection of the traffic light. (Germany's current coalition at the federal level - colloquially called the traffic light - includes the SPD, Greens and FDP). Initial results show that the SPD won just six percent of the vote in Thuringia, and the Greens and the FDP have both failed to win the five percent share that is required to hold any seats in the parliament.
In Saxony, the results were a little bit different with the CDU winning the most votes, narrowly followed by the AfD (with close to a third of the votes each), and then the BSW, SPD and the Greens.
As in Thuringia, Saxony’s prior governing coalition (which consisted of the CDU, SPD and the Greens) will no longer be tenable, and the CDU will likely need to partner with the BSW to make it work.
Oliver Lembcke, a political scientist, told DPA that the two state elections represent a "turning point" and can be seen as "...an election of anger against a west German party landscape and against the 'traffic light'."
The AfD to gain blocking power
Even with the firewall keeping the AfD in the opposition, by virtue of securing roughly a third of the votes, the AfD has gained considerable influence in these regions.
At least in Thuringia, the AfD is expected to have a blocking minority – meaning the party could block decisions that require a two-thirds majority to pass parliament.
Actions that require a two-thirds approval include the election of constitutional judges, for instance, or the appointment of heads of the state audit offices.
This gives the far-right party significant influence over the make-up of regional political bodies going forward. If both the governing coalition and the AfD refuse to budge it could lead to a dysfunctional government blocking itself at every turn.
AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla said of the election results that there would be "no politics without the AfD".
READ ALSO: 'We need change' - Germany's far-right AfD eyes power after state election win
It's also possible that the surge of AfD votes could push mainstream parties to adopt positions further to the right. Recently a number of German leaders have shifted on some issues, including on rules regarding migration and deportations.
Can Germany’s mainstream parties learn to better meet voters’ needs?
In both Thuringia and Saxony, the AfD has tripled its voter share in 10 years (up from about 10 percent of votes in state elections in 2014).
Both the AfD and the BSW have run campaigns attacking the politics of Germany’s established parties. They accuse the traffic light coalition parties of acting against voters’ interests, and promise a fresh start.
Saxony's current state premier Michael Kretschmer (CDU) managed to maintain his share of the vote by distancing himself from the CDU at the federal level – for instance by campaigning for a "freeze" of funding for Ukraine's defence and for an upper limit for asylum seekers.
These issues are of particular importance in Germany’s former eastern states, and also help to explain the success of the BSW.
It’s long been understood that many voters here have felt left behind following the reunification of Germany in 1990. Deindustrialisation hit the region hard, and a number of statistics – everything from minimum wages to average household income to the average number of cars per person – show that conditions in the former eastern states never quite caught up with those in the rest of the country.
Populist politics, and playing toward peoples' most basic economic and security interests has always been part of democracy, explained Dresden-based political scientist Hans Vorländer on a recent ARD podcast. And these elections suggest that in Saxony and Thuringia, this tactic delivers.
The far-right party’s record-breaking vote count couldn’t even be dampened by thousands of people that took to the streets in Dresden and Erfurt to demonstrate against right-wing extremism this weekend, or by the previous series of protests that began in January.
READ ALSO:
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What next?
Another former eastern state goes to the polls in just under three weeks – on September 22nd elections will be held in Brandenburg.
The state is seen as an important one for the SPD party, because the social democrats currently hold the state premier position there with Dietmar Woidke.
If the party also loses a significant portion of its voter share in Brandenburg, it would be seen as a sign that the SPD could be following the wrong figure-heads – namely Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as the chancellor most directly affects people’s perception of a party.
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert hinted at this in statements made to ZDF on election night. "I've met many people in the two states who are rather dissatisfied,” he said.
With the federal elections coming up in autumn next year, coalition parties will be keen to limit damage control as much as possible - and try and position themselves for the tough months ahead.
With reporting by DPA.
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