Germany is on the cusp of a profound transformation, according to the 16th population projection from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis).
The figures, presented at a press conference in Berlin on Thursday, offer a sobering look at Germany’s demographic future.
The baby boomer generation is moving into retirement and the cohorts following them are significantly smaller. Increasingly, members of the working age population will have to support a growing number of older citizens whose health needs are growing ever more complex.
The latest projections, which extend to 2070, highlight not only the national trends but also the regional nuances that will shape the country’s future.
What do the figures reveal about Germany?
The headline figure is stark: by 2035, nearly a quarter (23 to 24 percent) of Germany’s population will be aged 67 or older. That's a significant increase from 2024, when only one in five people was of retirement age.
The number of people aged 67 and above is then expected to continue rising steadily, reaching between 20.5 and 21.3 million by 2038 – an increase of up to 4.5 million people compared with today.
The dependency ratio – that is the number of people of retirement age for every 100 people of working age – is also set to rise sharply.
Currently, there are 33 pensioners for every 100 workers in Germany. By 2070, this figure could rise to 43 in the best-case scenario, which assumes higher birth rates and sustained high levels of immigration.
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In contrast, if both birth rates and immigration remain low, the ratio could climb as high as 61 pensioners per 100 workers— meaning fewer than two people working for every person receiving a pension.
The number of very elderly people (aged 80 and over) is also set to rise significantly from the mid-2030s, with projections suggesting an increase from 6.1 million in 2024 to up to 9.8 million by 2050 – with major implications for care needs.
Regionally, the picture is varied. The overall population in western German states is expected to remain stable at best, while the eastern states are projected to experience a population decline of between 14 percent and 30 percent by 2070.
The city states – Berlin, Hamburg, and Bremen – could see growth if immigration remains high, but even here, a decline is possible if immigration slows.
Notably, the eastern states are already older on average. In 2024, 24 percent of their population was 67 or older, compared to 20 percent in the west and 17 percent in the city states.
What does this mean for Germany?
Germany’s total fertility rate (TFR) – the average number of children per woman – stood at just 1.35 in 2024, well below the replacement level of 2.0 which would keep the population stable.
TFR is a crucial measure for understanding demographic trends: the further below 2.0 it falls, the faster the population shrinks.
This is not a uniquely German problem, of course, and the implications of a falling birth rate, combined with rising life expectancy, are profound.
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As the population ages, the share of resources devoted to supporting those who have already lived most of their lives increases.
Numerous recent publications, including “After the Spike” by Dean Spears and Michael Geruso and “No One Left” by Paul Morland, attempt to analyse the impact this can have on every aspect of society.
As Germany’s population grows older, for example, the influence of senior citizens on the country’s political landscape can be expected to grow, shifting political priorities and voting patterns in ways that reflect their interests and concerns.
Traditionally, older voters are more risk averse, preferring to opt for the status-quo ahead of more radical but potentially vital alternatives.
At the same time, the financial burden placed on the working age population is likely to intensify. This group will be expected to generate enough tax revenue to support pensions and healthcare for the elderly.
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And, as the family networks which once shared the task of caring for elderly relatives continue to shrink, many will also have to shoulder more and more of these responsibilities directly.
Businesses are also likely to stagnate or shrink in tandem with the shrinking number of available workers. Germany is already experiencing significant difficulties recruiting workers, with widely reported consequences for the national economy.
Lots of problems, few solutions
While researchers and academics are becoming increasingly adept at identifying the problem, solutions are more difficult to identify.
The Destatis report notes that “even high immigration cannot prevent a decline in the working-age population” – although it will clearly become increasingly important in mitigating the problem.
Hypothetically, it’s possible that Germany’s birth rate could see a sudden and dramatic rise, although recent trends in both Germany and across the developed world point in the opposite direction.
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But even if everyone in the country began having more children, it would take decades for this to ease the demographic pressure.
In the short to medium term it would actually worsen the dependency ratio, as children require significant investments of time and money before they grow up to become working-age adults themselves.
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