On Monday at 5pm, 16 working groups tasked with penning a new political programme for Germany will present their results to party leaders from the conservative CDU/CSU, and the centre-left SPD parties. The deadline marks the end of the first phase of coalition negotiations for the parties, and a key step in forming a new government in the coming weeks.
Having kicked off formal talks on Friday, March 14th, the specialised groups had just 10 days to whirl through negotiations and come up with policies that both sides could agree on. With a self-imposed Easter deadline for entering office, CDU leader and likely future chancellor Friedrich Merz has put the parties on a tight schedule.
According to media reports, some groups have found their work easier than others. Media, digitalisation and the EU were areas of broad agreement, while tricky topics like migration, work and social security presented endless hurdles. Ahead of talks, the groups were put under strict instructions not to take selfies or leak to the press, and to resolve as many issues as they could themselves.
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Though Merz has praised the high level of trust between the two sides, there have also been some frayed nerves. The SPD, who have spent the last three years as the head of government, have apparently presented a confident front and made use of their expertise in various ministries. MPs from the CDU, meanwhile, have found it hard to understand why a party that achieved one of their worst-ever election results in February can be so self-assured.
Throughout the day on Monday, the parties are expected to comment on the progress of the talks. In the afternoon, each working group will be told to show what they've achieved so far. From here, any unresolved issues will be passed on to the leadership - and there are expected to be a lot of them.
What issues are still on the table?
Here are some of the key topics that reportedly still have members of the parties bashing their heads together.
Tax reform: Though both the CDU/CSU and the SPD have promised to relieve taxpayers, there was always going to be disagreement about who exactly cuts should apply to. The SPD suggests its keen to increase the burden on the highest earners, while the CDU and CSU want to reform corporate taxes, and cut profit and income tax to a maximum of 25 percent.
There is also believed to be fierce disagreement on the topic of Ehrgattensplitting, which allows married couples with one high earner to group their incomes and thereby reduce their tax rate. However, the parties are both aligned on lifting the threshold for the top rate of tax to €80,000 per year.
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Social benefits: In a key win for the CDU and CSU, the likely coalition partners have already pledged to end the current Bürgergeld unemployment system. This will be replaced with a tougher scheme that penalises people who choose not to work. Nevertheless, the parties are still clarifying some details, such as whether Ukrainian refugees should receive ordinary unemployment benefits or less generous assistance under Germany's asylum law.
Trans rights: A major project of the former traffic-light coalition was the so-called "self-determination law", which made it easier for trans people in Germany to officially change their gender identity. The CDU and CSU are determined to scrap this, while the SPD is fighting to keep it.
Migration: Irregular migration was a key theme in the run-up to the February elections, with the CDU and CSU pledging to reject asylum seekers at the border. While the SPD has agreed to this in principle, it only wants to do so if neighbouring countries agree to the plans. The party also sees the conservatives' plans to drastically cut benefits for asylum seekers to "bed, soap and bread" as inhumane.
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Climate protections: For the past week or so, environmental politician Nina Scheer has been largely fighting alone for the SPD in trying to hold on to climate protection policies. The CDU and CSU, in contrast, are determined to scrap the subsidies for climate-friendly energy in Robert Habeck's heating law and replace them with a new scheme. It's also unclear if the Klimageld concept, which would pay out revenues from the CO2 tax to citizens, will be introduced. In addition, it seems sector targets for reducing climate emissions may be scrapped.
Health: Adopting an idea pitched by the Green Party, the SPD would like to see an advertising ban on sugary and fatty products, which the CDU/CSU categorically reject.
Education: The topic of student grants and loans has been hard to reconcile in coalition negotiations so far. The CDU wants to reduce loans for students, while the SPD wants to provide more. Free school meals for disadvantaged children are also believed to be a subject of controversy.
How will the next days and weeks pan out?
Once the working groups have all submitted their results to party leaders on Monday, this will kick off a three-day 'drafting phase' where the parties will review their work so far and conduct a financial analysis.
A roundtable of 19 key politicians from the CDU, CSU and SPD will attempt to address the trickiest problems that remain in negotiations. Originally, Merz wanted all of the most difficult questions to be clarified in the first part of April, with an official sign-off on a coalition agreement around the 14th.
The much-touted Easter deadline would mean the parties have until April 20th to finalise their plans for government. However, CDU parliamentary leader Thorsten Frei said on Monday that this was by no means a hard deadline.
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"Thoroughness is clearly more important than speed," he told DPA. "It is more important that we now create a good basis for a successful government for Germany."
If all goes according to plan, the new government would be in place in four weeks' time, with Merz elected chancellor on April 23rd - just two months after the February 23rd elections.
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