German economy rebounds from recession, but growth stays weak
The German economy grew only very slightly between January and March, official figures published Tuesday showed, dodging a recession after a weak end to 2023.
Output rose by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024 in comparison with the previous three months, federal statistics agency Destatis said in preliminary figures.
By contrast, Europe's largest economy shrank 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to a revised figure out from Destatis. That revised figure was worse than its previous estimate that GDP fell by 0.3 percent in the quarter.
The statistics agency however upgraded its estimate for the whole of 2023, suggesting the German economy contracted only 0.2 percent over the year instead of 0.3 percent.
The increase in the first quarter of 2024 reflected an improvement in the construction industry and in exports, Destatis said. Household consumption however fell in the quarter, according to the agency.
The economic mood in Germany has been pessimistic in recent months, as businesses have had to manage increased energy costs, high inflation and rising interest rates. But with the costs for energy coming down and inflation easing, the outlook has improved. The government last week adjusted up its forecasts for 2024, predicting growth of 0.3 percent instead of 0.2 percent.
The first quarter improvement showed "the German economy can still grow after all", ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said. "Optimism has returned to the German economy."
The rebound would however be limited by "structural weaknesses", Brzeski said.
"Higher oil prices as a result of the military conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, are likely to weigh on industry and exports once again," he said.
An increasing number of insolvencies could also weaken the labour market, Brzeski warned.
Unemployment in Germany however remained stable, according to figures published by the federal employment agency on Tuesday. The joblessness rate stood at 5.9 percent in April, the BA federal labour agency said.
READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?
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Output rose by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2024 in comparison with the previous three months, federal statistics agency Destatis said in preliminary figures.
By contrast, Europe's largest economy shrank 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to a revised figure out from Destatis. That revised figure was worse than its previous estimate that GDP fell by 0.3 percent in the quarter.
The statistics agency however upgraded its estimate for the whole of 2023, suggesting the German economy contracted only 0.2 percent over the year instead of 0.3 percent.
The increase in the first quarter of 2024 reflected an improvement in the construction industry and in exports, Destatis said. Household consumption however fell in the quarter, according to the agency.
The economic mood in Germany has been pessimistic in recent months, as businesses have had to manage increased energy costs, high inflation and rising interest rates. But with the costs for energy coming down and inflation easing, the outlook has improved. The government last week adjusted up its forecasts for 2024, predicting growth of 0.3 percent instead of 0.2 percent.
The first quarter improvement showed "the German economy can still grow after all", ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski said. "Optimism has returned to the German economy."
The rebound would however be limited by "structural weaknesses", Brzeski said.
"Higher oil prices as a result of the military conflict between Iran and Israel, as well as the ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, are likely to weigh on industry and exports once again," he said.
An increasing number of insolvencies could also weaken the labour market, Brzeski warned.
Unemployment in Germany however remained stable, according to figures published by the federal employment agency on Tuesday. The joblessness rate stood at 5.9 percent in April, the BA federal labour agency said.
READ ALSO: Can Germany revive its struggling economy?
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