EXPLAINED: Do Germans want an early election?
Even though Germany's governing coalition currently has very high disapproval ratings, a majority of Germans seem to think it should finish out its full term, which ends in late 2025.
Germany’s governing traffic light coalition between the centre-left Social Democrats, Greens, and socially liberal Free Democrats is one of the most unpopular governments in modern German history.
Just 17 percent of the German public are currently satisfied with its work, according to one recent survey. That same poll found that 36 percent of respondents were dissatisfied and 46 percent were “very dissatisfied” with the current government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, along with other leading politicians such as Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens, and Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP.
Zufriedenheit mit der Bundesregierung | Umfrage Infratest dimap/ARD
Sehr zufrieden: 1%
Zufrieden: 16%
Weniger zufrieden: 36% (-1)
Gar nicht zufrieden: 46% (+1)
Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 07. Dezember 2023#btw #btw25 pic.twitter.com/oDJ229q83Q
— Deutschland Wählt (@Wahlen_DE) January 4, 2024
If an election were held today, it would get a combined 31 percent of the vote. That’s the same percentage as the opposition Christian Democrats would get by themselves.
The liberal FDP, polling at four percent, is even in danger of not making the five percent threshold required to get any seats in the Bundestag at all.
BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv
Union: 31% (+1)
AfD: 22%
GRÜNE: 14%
SPD: 13% (-2)
FDP: 4%
LINKE: 4%
FW: 3%
Sonstige: 9% (+1)
Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 09. Januar 2024
Verlauf: https://t.co/f9MV7iZ8iJ#btw #btw25 pic.twitter.com/Og4HsExjOO
— Deutschland Wählt (@Wahlen_DE) January 16, 2024
What’s more, the current government is likely to see further tests this year, with the far-right AfD polling at 22 percent nationally and expected to do well in three German state elections and possibly also in the European Parliament elections.
EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?
With the current government likely to get the boot in the next scheduled federal elections in September 2025, it’s perhaps understandable why it would like to continue on until the end of its mandate. It might also be understandable – from a political point of view anyway – why both Bavarian Christian Social Union Markus Söder and the far-left Linke leader Martin Schirdewan are calling for early elections.
But do German voters feel the same way?
Despite the evidence that may leave people guessing otherwise, it turns out the answer isn’t so clear-cut. At least that’s according to a recent survey by STERN magazine.
51 percent of voters are against the idea of voting before September 2025, while 46 percent are in favour of early elections and the rest currently have no opinion.
What’s more, the percentage of people opposing early elections has gone up since the last poll on the subject, but about three percent – even as dissatisfaction with the current government has risen since Forsa conducted a similar poll in November.
Why might Germans not want early elections?
Unlike common practice in many English-speaking countries – with the notable exception of the US – German governments don’t have the same power to call elections at times that are most politically convenient for them.
Election dates remain fixed either every four years federally or every five years at the state level, with national elections always falling on the last Sunday in September every four years.
Given German history of the unstable governments in the Weimar Republic of the 1920s that helped lead to the rise of the Nazis in 1933, Germans have tended to favour the political stability of fixed election dates.
That may help explain that, while the current government remains unpopular and is still scheduled to serve another year-and-a-half or so in office – many Germans still aren’t in a rush to get back to the ballot box.
OPINION: Germany faces hellish year in politics amid rise of far-right
Comments
See Also
Germany’s governing traffic light coalition between the centre-left Social Democrats, Greens, and socially liberal Free Democrats is one of the most unpopular governments in modern German history.
Just 17 percent of the German public are currently satisfied with its work, according to one recent survey. That same poll found that 36 percent of respondents were dissatisfied and 46 percent were “very dissatisfied” with the current government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, along with other leading politicians such as Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens, and Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the FDP.
Zufriedenheit mit der Bundesregierung | Umfrage Infratest dimap/ARD
— Deutschland Wählt (@Wahlen_DE) January 4, 2024
Sehr zufrieden: 1%
Zufrieden: 16%
Weniger zufrieden: 36% (-1)
Gar nicht zufrieden: 46% (+1)
Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 07. Dezember 2023#btw #btw25 pic.twitter.com/oDJ229q83Q
If an election were held today, it would get a combined 31 percent of the vote. That’s the same percentage as the opposition Christian Democrats would get by themselves.
The liberal FDP, polling at four percent, is even in danger of not making the five percent threshold required to get any seats in the Bundestag at all.
BUNDESTAGSWAHL | Sonntagsfrage Forsa/RTL/n-tv
— Deutschland Wählt (@Wahlen_DE) January 16, 2024
Union: 31% (+1)
AfD: 22%
GRÜNE: 14%
SPD: 13% (-2)
FDP: 4%
LINKE: 4%
FW: 3%
Sonstige: 9% (+1)
Änderungen zur letzten Umfrage vom 09. Januar 2024
Verlauf: https://t.co/f9MV7iZ8iJ#btw #btw25 pic.twitter.com/Og4HsExjOO
What’s more, the current government is likely to see further tests this year, with the far-right AfD polling at 22 percent nationally and expected to do well in three German state elections and possibly also in the European Parliament elections.
EXPLAINED: Could the far-right AfD ever take power in Germany?
With the current government likely to get the boot in the next scheduled federal elections in September 2025, it’s perhaps understandable why it would like to continue on until the end of its mandate. It might also be understandable – from a political point of view anyway – why both Bavarian Christian Social Union Markus Söder and the far-left Linke leader Martin Schirdewan are calling for early elections.
But do German voters feel the same way?
Despite the evidence that may leave people guessing otherwise, it turns out the answer isn’t so clear-cut. At least that’s according to a recent survey by STERN magazine.
51 percent of voters are against the idea of voting before September 2025, while 46 percent are in favour of early elections and the rest currently have no opinion.
What’s more, the percentage of people opposing early elections has gone up since the last poll on the subject, but about three percent – even as dissatisfaction with the current government has risen since Forsa conducted a similar poll in November.
Why might Germans not want early elections?
Unlike common practice in many English-speaking countries – with the notable exception of the US – German governments don’t have the same power to call elections at times that are most politically convenient for them.
Election dates remain fixed either every four years federally or every five years at the state level, with national elections always falling on the last Sunday in September every four years.
Given German history of the unstable governments in the Weimar Republic of the 1920s that helped lead to the rise of the Nazis in 1933, Germans have tended to favour the political stability of fixed election dates.
That may help explain that, while the current government remains unpopular and is still scheduled to serve another year-and-a-half or so in office – many Germans still aren’t in a rush to get back to the ballot box.
OPINION: Germany faces hellish year in politics amid rise of far-right
Join the conversation in our comments section below. Share your own views and experience and if you have a question or suggestion for our journalists then email us at [email protected].
Please keep comments civil, constructive and on topic – and make sure to read our terms of use before getting involved.
Please log in here to leave a comment.