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OPINION & ANALYSIS

OPINION: Covid has sent Germany into hysteria again but the remedy is under its nose

The rocketing Covid cases and rising patient numbers has seen Germany lurch once again towards national hysteria and the current strategy means the country's incoming government are in danger of committing political suicide, writes Brian Melican.

A face mask lies in autumn leaves in Hamburg.
A face mask lies in autumn leaves in Hamburg. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Christian Charisius

Although German is more renowned for its complicated compound nouns than its compact witticisms, it’s not short on pithy morsels. There’s this one, for example: aus Angst vor dem Tod Selbstmord begehen – to commit suicide for fear of dying. It aptly describes a very human mechanism: when faced with seemingly overwhelming danger, many people either exhaust all other options (including patently bad ones) before taking real action or, worse, do nothing at all.

Having said that, English has certainly got a knack for good analogies, and recently, I’ve been searching for the German equivalent of this one: “When you’ve got a hammer, every problem looks like a nail.” 

Both these figures of speech are useful ways of looking at the current Coronavirus situation in Germany – which is, of course, not good. Case numbers are high, vaccination rates are low, and the atmosphere is apocalyptic.

After November 2020 (the half-arsed “semi-lockdown”) and April 2021 (the doomed “Easter break”), for the third time in just over a year, the country is suffering a collective nervous breakdown over a pandemic which has, later than elsewhere, but just as unforgivingly, laid bare our most unattractive national traits: a tendency to alternate between states of chauvinism and hysteria, an obsession with pointless details excluding the bigger picture, and a deeply unbalanced concept of liberty. For anyone asking “How did we get here?” (or perhaps: “Why are we still here?”), this is what’s happened.

Self congratulation

Germany likes to think of itself as being among the best, and is especially happy when its successes come either from innovation and high quality or from the strict, disciplined application of rules. So early last year, when a prompt national lockdown with high levels of compliance seemed to keep the virus at bay, this – combined with the fact that Germany also had good PCR testing where other countries were lacking it – had us all patting ourselves on the back. 

A Covid test centre in Schkeuditz, Saxony.
A Covid test centre in Schkeuditz, Saxony. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Zentralbild | Sebastian Willnow

The flipside was the usual chauvinism. In summer 2020, Germans on holiday would come back “shocked” at all those Italians hugging or the French still exchanging kisses. In their astonishment, the fact that they were returning without being routinely tested escaped them – much as it escaped a government also too busy with self-congratulation to put in place much by way of preparation for the autumn.

That was unfortunate, because, as it turned out, we basically got lucky last spring. What autumn revealed was that all the performative hand-disinfecting and door-to-table mask-wearing in the world wasn’t enough to stop Covid when, outside of restaurant settings, Germans were behaving like pretty much everyone else: meeting family, hugging friends, bending rules. 

READ ALSO: 7 things the Covid-19 crisis has taught us about Germany

Yet rather than just accept that we, too, are humans faced with a very nasty virus, we panicked about the fact that we were no longer on par with wholly incomparable countries (e.g. New Zealand) and simply facing the same trouble as our immediate neighbours. That rates of illness and death here, while higher than hoped, were still considerably lower than across the borders in pretty much every direction was not deemed a moderate success, but rather grounds for national hysteria. 

The result was a deeply damaging seven-month lockdown so inescapably grinding that compliance broke down halfway through, precipitating a nationwide curfew of dubious constitutionality. After (an unfortunately late) spring eventually freed us from this dysfunctionality, we immediately reverted back to national chauvinism, basking in the success of the Germany-made BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine while we scorned other vaccines, like Renaults next to BMWs on a dealership forecourt.

Now, as we stumble into winter with under 70 percent of the population fully vaccinated and ICUs under strain, we have flipped back to national hysteria. While Denmark is only reapplying minimal Covid measures at 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants per week, Germany is doubling down on measures which never went away at the 300 mark and the national mood is somewhere between “We’re all doomed” and “Please, just shoot me”.

Education, fiscal prudence, digitisation – and now Corona: clearly we have immense difficulty with the idea that we might just be a normal central European country and not either an absolute Weltmeister or an abject failure.

A police van drives through Hanover during the government curfew in April.
A police van drives through Hanover during the government curfew in April as part of the months-long shutdown. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Ole Spata

Obsession with detailed rules

It’s a hallmark of hysteria that prevents those gripped by it from assessing their options and responding adequately. This is worsened by a long-held national tendency which has been given free rein since Coronavirus struck: an obsessive approach to detailed rules which gets in the way of actual issues.

That’s why it’s illegal to cross the road on a red light even when there’s no traffic, but totally legal to drive two tonnes of metal at over 30mph even in built-up areas. That’s also why it’s legal to be an unvaccinated medical professional and treat vulnerable patients in Hamburg’s hospitals, but illegal to take off your mask in all manner of outdoor spaces – unless, of course, you have one of the numerous exemptions, have bought a takeaway coffee, or want a cigarette…

German also has a neat word for this kind of ‘displacement activity’: Ersatzhandlungen. The solutions currently being proposed, withdrawn, and proposed again are all, to varying degrees of egregiousness, displacement activity which fails to deal with the elephant in the room. It’s an elephant shaped like the 30 percent of the population who have not yet received even a single dose of vaccination against the virus. 

And so new legislation will allow for making the fully-vaccinated take tests to go to restaurants (“2G Plus”) and re-imposing mask wearing into the bargain, will limit public transport to those who have immunity, a vaccine pass, or an up-to-date negative test (“3G”), and will gives states powers to impose lockdowns if things get out of hand.

And while this new approach is certainly preferable to the previous federal-level solution, all of it is just managing a pandemic instead of really pushing for, say, Portuguese levels of vaccination which would put us in a much better position. 

READ ALSO: Why are so many Germans reluctant to get vaccinated?

A Hamburg bar excludes unvaccinated people
A Hamburg bar excludes unvaccinated people (so-called 2G rules). Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Marcus Brandt

German politicians have not levelled with those unvaccinated 

There is a massive irony to the fact that the most effective Covid vaccine out there was developed in Germany, yet Germans have proved some of the most unwilling to take it (or any others) in Europe. There are lots of reasons for this hesitancy, but it won’t do to shift the blame wholly onto the population. It’s a political failure.

Unfortunately, we were told all of last year that our world-class testing infrastructure and comparatively early adoption of surgical and construction-grade masks were keeping our figures low. And so now, 18 grinding months of restrictions later and even with a plethora of vaccines at our disposal, a non-negligible number of Germans still think tests and masks will be enough to ride this thing out. Why? Because, thus far, politicians have proven unwilling to level with them. 

READ ALSO: Germany’s planned Covid restrictions to fight fourth wave

That’s perhaps why, over yet another wasted summer, the outgoing grand coalition – led by Chancellor Angela Merkel – allowed vaccination to drift off to a wholly hyperlocal level, predicating people’s interest in or access to it on their relationship to their GPs (assuming they have one…). Only now, as health experts are raising the alarm every day is there any talk of reactivating large-scale vaccination centres. What there will certainly be, though, as of next week: more tests.

Essentially, lateral-flow tests and masks are Germany’s hammer, and so all of our Covid problems look like nails. The problems are, however, screws. And the fact that we are still hammering away at them rather than using our screwdriver (i.e. vaccination) is so frustrating that it’s painful to watch. 

We are now faced with the spectacle of an incoming administration which, rather than even just forcing nurses and care-workers to get vaccinated, is planning to make the doubly, potentially even triply inoculated get near-daily tests.

The 70 percent of us who have overridden the national tendency to excessive caution are still being treated as ticking time-bombs while live munition is wondering around all over the place. This is tantamount to placing a powder keg under trust in the state and in medical science. For fear of death at the ballot box dealt out by the 30 percent, Germany’s new government currently looks intent on committing potentially explosive suicide.

READ ALSO: Germany risks losing support of the vaccinated in Covid fight

Member comments

  1. Sick of the people who refuse to get vaccinated, while sensible people are waiting to get our third jab. No, I won’t agree to also be also forced to take a test to go somewhere the same as someone who cannot be bothered to be vaccinated.
    This Government is too scared to take the Bull by the horns & make these idiots get a jab.

    1. We cannot vaccinate our way out of this. It is the like the flu and we have never “ beaten” the flu through vaccination.

      The only long term solution is to gradually reduce the masks, the restrictions and rely on natural immunity in the longer term.

      1. Agreed. This idea that vaccination is a silver bullet is misleading, and not borne out by historical approach to any other illness. And shame and blame, or creating essentially two societies based on vaccination status, is not constructive or solving the problem at the root. Also, “breakthrough cases” are not so rare. There have been countless cases of vaccinated individuals in the US and around the world who have still gotten sick and can still be carriers. Treating the unvaccinated as pariahs, or the source of the ongoing pandemic, is simply isolating a segment of the population further with faulty reasoning.

        1. You are false to put this on the same level. Vaccinated people are much less likely to become reinfected, much less likely to become very ill, and much less likely to spread the disease, thus reducing the chance of further more dangerous mutations.

          1. Richard. You are incorrect in part of your statement.

            “Vaccinated are much less likely to become very ill” – Partly true as symptoms seem to be reduced, although many vaccinated are becoming ill and dying too.

            “Vaccinated people are much less likely to become infected” – They are less likely to become infected at first, but the vaccine effectiveness drops off after a few months. Recent data from the UK (Public Health England) for weeks 36-44 shows that for everyone over 30 years, infection rates are HIGHER in the vaccinated. No-one seems to know how this can be, and the media are not really talking about it, but the data is the data.

            “Vaccinated are much less likely to spread the disease” – This is completely false. They have known for many months now that viral loads for those infected are the same regardless of vaccination status. US CDC has confirmed this. Data from UK and Israel has confirmed this. If viral loading is the same then infectiousness is also the same.

            It is also worth considering that if symptoms are lower and testing less frequent for the vaccinated, it is the vaccinated who are far more likely to be the driver of disease spread at this point in time.

          2. Just one further point:
            Mass vaccinating into a pandemic is actually a driver of mutations, dangerous or otherwise. This is especially the case for “leaky” vaccines that don’t block infection.
            This used to be well known virology 101 before 2020.

      2. I agree that Vaccination is not the ultimate solution, but it helps get us out of this just like the flu jab reduces cases. And people who will not even get vaccinated are filling up the wards that could otherwise be avaviable to people with existing problems

    2. The government certainly spent their resources in the wrong places such as poorly effective lateral flow tests, instead of investing in a campaign to get people vaccinated. Just because the vaccination is the first application of mRNA, does not mean its not well researched and understood; it has decades of research supporting its effectiveness. The lack of scientific rational and explanation around the technology has allowed for anti-vaxers to spread their misinformation.

      1. Completely agree. And where I live (Eastern Part of NRW), there was a massive shortage of vaccine. I had to BEG my Doctor to find just one more dose and get the first jab, and I’m 65 and that was not until May 26th 2021!
        Laschet totally mishandled the situation here. Thank God he is now History.

  2. I have yet to see proof that this constant testing concept has any ACTUAL result on infections or spread. The correlation associated with it can be compared with every other European country that also saw reductions as temperatures went up, and you see that this huge expense on testing is just a waste of money.

    Unlike other commenters believe, vaccination is the way out of this, combined with actually checking and verifying vaccination status and ID. Contrary to belief, vaccination has both effectively eradicated disease (i.e. measles) and does effectively reduce infection rate and severity (i.e. flu) when the uptake is significant enough.

    The concept of natural herd immunity through devastating levels of infection and recovery is both irresponsible in respect to humanity and highly risky in regards to emergence of variants.

  3. I think we could do with some moderation of BJD’s comments – several of these ‘facts’ are really not true

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OPINION & ANALYSIS

OPINION: Germany has failed to do its energy ‘homework’ – and faces years of catching up

Germany's energy crisis is the result of decades of failing to take action - and now residents face tough times. Brian Melican looks at what went wrong and asks why Germany isn't doing more to become energy independent given the scale of the problem.

OPINION: Germany has failed to do its energy 'homework' - and faces years of catching up

One of the most common figures of speech in German political debate is “doing one’s homework”. “Da hat die Politik mal wieder ihre Hausaufgaben nicht gemacht!” – “Once again, the politicians haven’t done their homework!” – is the usual refrain when something has gone quite predictably awry. Part and parcel of day-to-day politics in Germany, into other cultural spheres, this accusation is considered insufferably patronising. During the Euro crisis of 2012, for instance, the Greeks grew tired of being told, like petulant teenagers, to “go away and do (their) homework”. So it’s hard to begrudge them their audible Schadenfreude now that the self-styled schoolmaster has been caught with a briefcase full of unmarked essays.

While the details of the current energy crisis into which Germany has manoeuvred itself are technically complex – turbines and export permits; prolonging the service life of nuclear reactors or even recommissioning them; adjusting the amount of gas-generated electricity in the grid to varying degrees between north and south – the overall picture is so simple that every schoolchild can understand it: we have been putting off our homework for too long. 

READ ALSO: Energy crisis to labour shortage: Five challenges facing Germany right now

Years of inaction 

The assignment was set long ago. Back in the late 1990s, climate change first hit the political agenda and the Kyoto Protocol bound signatories to reduce greenhouse emissions. What’s more, Germany, as a country with few natural resources but a large industrial economy, has long been dependent on in importing astronomical amounts of oil and gas from foreign regimes – an approach whose weaknesses started to become apparent in the Oil Crises of the 1970s. As such, the task was clear – to radically reduce our dependency on fossil fuels – and the student understood the learning objectives: contribute to saving the planet and gain a degree of strategic freedom.

We got off to a good start in 1998 by, for the first time ever, electing the Greens, who promptly proclaimed the Energiewende (green energy transition) and set about creating Europe’s leading solar and wind power industry. Unfortunately, however, the Chancellor they were under was SPD-man Gerhard “Greenhouse gasses? Russian gas!” Schröder and, in the background, industrials were assured that they wouldn’t have to take all the ecological stuff too seriously. 

Gerhard Schröder and Vladimir Putin

Gerhard Schröder hugs Vladimir Putin at a meeting in Moscow in 2018. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/TASS | Alexei Druzhinin

Then, in 2005 we elected Chancellor Merkel – and re-elected her three times on a more or less explicit platform of Keeping Everything The Way It Is. This could only be achieved by continuing to import fossil fuels – an ever increasing proportion of which came, in spite of the many clear and pressing dangers, from Russia – and shrinking our renewables sector so that money could still be lavished on tax breaks for motorists and nobody’s view would be spoiled by wind farms.

Now, the due date for our homework has come around and we have a serious crisis. Things, for the first time ever, can no longer be Kept The Way They Are: public buildings are no longer being heated/cooled, swimming pools are being shut, and monuments are not being lit; those of us on gas heating (i.e. the majority of households in Germany) will soon be paying anything from double to quadruple our current bills.

READ ALSO: Reader question – Should I modernise my heating system in Germany?

Everywhere we look, there are shortages: not enough gas means, in anti-wind-power southern Germany, not enough electricity too. Yet sales figures from DIY chain stores show skyrocketing sales of electric heaters; shutting public buildings reduces consumption there, but increases it in people’s homes… Like a schoolboy on Sunday evening counting and re-counting the hours, whichever way we divide our time, there’s not enough of it.

Gas heaters on display in Hornbach Baumarkt in Fröttmaning.

Electric heaters are among the many heating devices lining store shelves right now, like these on display in a Hornbach Baumarkt in Fröttmaning Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Felix Hörhager

What’s astonishing, by the way, is not actually how bad things have got – and how bad they’re looking this autumn and winter – but rather that they aren’t already far worse. This is primarily due to Economics Minister Robert Habeck’s decisive early action and brutally honest communication: as a result, we have been unexpectedly successful in reducing dependency on Russian gas from 55 percent to 35 percent within four months and have, due to various comparatively painless efficiency savings, managed to cut our gas consumption by 14 percent compared to last summer. As such, the Federal Network Agency is now cautiously optimistic that, if this winter is not a particularly cold one, we may just about make it through without having to shut off the gas supply to swathes of our industry or whole cities.

This may sound like a national success story – and if we are indeed successful in maintaining this thin, increasingly wobbly veneer of normality into 2023, there will be a strong temptation to sell it as such, patting ourselves on the back for having been far-sighted enough to switch off the hot water in town halls across the country before it was too late and then allowing ourselves to get distracted. Yet depriving civil servants of warm water to wash their hands during some of the hottest months on record while half of them are on holiday anyway (Why wasn’t this already standard practice?!) does not a green energy transition make. It is the equivalent of writing the last line on that essay just as the bus pulls into the stop opposite the school.

READ ALSO: Cold showers to turning off lights: How German cities are saving energy ahead of winter

Winter is first obstacle of many

Any short-term successes must be put in the context of a mountain of uncompleted tasks in the medium term. Firstly, getting through this winter by the skin of our teeth will mean that gas stocks are even lower next April than they were this year. So we’d better hope that those liquefied natural gas terminals being rush-built on the coast are operational by then, and that Qatar – that oh-so reliable regime thousands of miles away on the Persian Gulf that totally shares all of our values – honours the contracts Robert Habeck managed to grovel us into earlier this year.

Robert Habeck, Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, takes part in a boat tour for liquefied natural gas imports to Germany on Wednesday in Wilhelmshaven.

Robert Habeck, Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection, takes part in a boat tour for liquefied natural gas imports to Germany earlier in 2022 in Wilhelmshaven. Photo: picture alliance/dpa | Sina Schuldt

We’d also better hope that the Suez Canal, through which tankers filled with the much-needed LNG will need to pass, remains open the whole time and that Russian submarines sneaking their way through the Bosphorus don’t generate “incidents at sea”; then there’s Putin’s air units stationed in Syria… After that, in 2024, we’ll also need to keep a close eye on the US elections: another chunk of the LNG planned to replace Russian gas is from across the Atlantic, and a second Trump Administration would probably be only marginally more reliable a supplier than Putin’s regime.

So despite the flurry of activity this summer and the understandable angst ahead of autumn, it’s not really this winter that we should be worried about. There is, quite simply, a massive disconnect between the monumental scale of action which would be required to make Germany truly energy independent and the diminutive dimensions of what is currently happening.

Right now, we should be making it a legal requirement for landlords to switch heating systems from gas and legislating for state-funded factories to meet the demand this would generate; we should be immediately reactivating some of the thousands of kilometres of freight tracks Deutsche Bahn has dismantled in recent years – and drafting laws to make hauliers use these rail connections. Instead, we are jerry-rigging up LNG terminals and mucking about with flash-in-the-pan €9 tickets while we continue subsidising car-drivers enormous sums to burn petrol. 

Oh, and given that – who could have guessed? – Russia is barely respecting its supply commitments anyway, we should finally do the decent thing and stop importing Russian gas now. Would that add to our dire predicament? Yes. But perhaps, in order for us to start taking our homework seriously, we need to learn a few lessons first.

READ ALSO: OPINION: How many massacres will it take for Germany to turn off Russian gas?

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