One in three people in Germany ‘will have migrant background in 20 years’

In the next two decades, every third person in Germany will have migrant roots or be a migrant themselves, according to experts.

One in three people in Germany 'will have migrant background in 20 years'
Germany is struggling to attract skilled workers like this one in in Fürstenwalde, Brandenburg. Photo: DPA

By 2040, about 35 percent of Germany's population will have a migrant background or be a migrant themselves, according to Herbert Brücker, who is in charge of the migration research department at the Federal Institute for Employment Research (IAB).

Brücker told Germany daily Welt on Monday that the country “will become more diverse”.

He said: “Currently, about a quarter of the people in Germany have a migrant background. In 20 years, it will be at least 35 percent, but could also be more than 40 percent.”

He said in large cities the proportion of migrants will climb to 70 percent.

Brücker said currently in Frankfurt “every second person there already has a migration background”.

“In Berlin the figure is about 35 percent,” he said.  “What we see in the big cities today will be normal for the country as a whole in the future. And in a city like Frankfurt, we'll have between 65 and 70 percent immigrants.”

Someone is considered to have a migrant background if they or at least one parent was born without German citizenship.

READ ALSO: One in every four German residents now has migrant background

Brücker, who is also director of the Berlin Institute for Empirical Integration and Migration Research (BIM) at Humboldt University, said that it is would be wrong to assume that a “minority” of Germans will in future face a “majority” of immigrants.

The Germans will always remain by far the largest group in the country, he said. 

However, Germany will face a further shortage of skilled workers and will need to think of ways of luring people from other countries. 

As The Local has reported, Germany is introducing a new law which is set to ease immigration rules in a bid to attract foreign job seekers to fill vacancies.

READ ALSO: How Germany plans to fight worker shortage with new immigration law

According to IAB calculations, Germany will need 400,000 migrants per year up until 2060, so that the working population can remain steady.

“We are in competition with other countries when it comes to migration – both among the highly qualified and among the less qualified,” said Brücker.

According to the latest statistics for 2018, about a quarter of the people in Germany – one in four – have a migration background.

In 2018, approximately 20.8 million people in Germany had a migrant background. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) said this was a 2.5 percent increase compared with a year earlier when the figure was 20.3 million.

READ ALSO:  'Germany's future depends on immigration and integration': Merkel

Member comments

Log in here to leave a comment.
Become a Member to leave a comment.
For members


What to know about German parcel delivery price hikes

People sending packages in Germany face higher costs after Deutsche Post subsidiary DHL announced it will increase prices from July.

What to know about German parcel delivery price hikes

Under the changes, sending some packages will become more expensive, both within Germany and internationally.

Logistics group DHL said the price hikes were due to several factors. 

“Increased transport, delivery and wage costs, as well as general cost increases, make price rises in national and cross-border parcel shipping unavoidable,” the company said. 

Meanwhile, there will no longer be a price advantage for buying parcel and package stamps online for domestic shipments. 

The different prices for labels bought online or in store will remain in place for international-bound parcels.

The changes come into force on July 1st.

READ ALSO: EXPLAINED: Why people in Germany are being charged to receive small parcels from outside the EU

What are the changes for domestic-bound packages?

The branch and online prices in the product category ‘Päckchen S’ will rise to €3.99 from €3.79.

The price for ‘Päckchen M’ will be €4.79 from July, up from €4.50 for a store-bought label, and €4.39 online. 

The price for the two-kilogram parcel, which is only available online, will rise to €5.49 from €4.99.

Packset and Pluspäckchen products will also cost slightly more due to the increase in paper costs, said DHL. 

However, the price to send a 5kg parcel is going down – it will be €6.99 instead of €7.49.

Prices for the 10kg and 31.5kg parcels will remain unchanged.

A DHL delivery worker carries packages.

A DHL delivery worker carries packages. Photo: picture alliance/dpa/dpa-Zentralbild | Jan Woitas

What’s changing for sending packages abroad?

The cost of many cross-border parcel and small package shipments from Germany will also increase. The logistics company said that’s because of the hike in flight rates as well as higher costs charged by other delivery firms.

The firm said it was “partially passing on to customers what are in some cases steep increases in airfares and the substantial rise in costs charged by delivery partners abroad”. 

There are particularly large price hikes for shipments to the United States.

For instance, from July it will cost €49.99 to send a package weighing up to 5kg to the US (zone 5 in Deutsche Post’s price chart) rather than €38.99. The online price for the same product will be €47.99 instead of €36.99.

The price of sending a packet weighing up to 10kg to the US will go up to €79.99 instead of €54.99. 

For an overview of the new prices, check out this chart. 

READ ALSO: How to challenge high import fees on non-EU parcels in Germany

Are there any other changes to know about?

Deutsche Post says the €1.70 customs data entry fee for shipments to non-EU countries franked at retail outlets will no longer apply from July 1st.

Instead, it will be incorporated directly into the respective retail outlet prices for non-EU shipments at a rate of €1.

The company is also pushing its sustainability strategy, with its GoGreen service being included for all products from July 1st, 2022, without customers having to pay a surcharge. “This is already the case for domestic parcel shipments,” said the firm.