The German labour market needs at least 260,000 immigrants every year in the medium- and long-term, according to a study published by the Bertelsmann Stiftung on Tuesday.
In light of an ageing society in Germany, the supply of labour – without migration – would shrink massively by around 16 million people, or almost one-third of the current population, by 2060.
Non-EU immigration is needed, since the amount of migration from other EU countries will decrease in the future, predicts the study.
Throughout the 28-member member bloc (27 when the U.K. leaves), economic strength and quality of life are expected to rise, meaning that the appeal of finding a job in Germany “is diminishing,” it stated.
As a result, immigration from non-European “third countries” is becoming increasingly important, wrote the study's authors.
On an annual average, 114,000 new arrivals from other EU countries and 146,000 from third countries were needed to limit the demographic decline in the supply of labour to a “level acceptable to the economy,” the study stated.
Immigration from other EU countries has remained strong in recent years – with a total of around 250,000 people in 2017.
However, taking a predicted decline of EU migration into account, the German labour market will need almost 98,000 immigrants a year from non-EU countries by 2035, wrote the study.
Between 2036 and 2050, it will require almost 170,000 immigrants from third countries per year, and between 2051 and 2060, that number will rise to 200,000 immigrants needed per year.
On average, this amounts to 146,000 migrants who are needed from third countries every year between 2018 and 2060, predicted the study.