In a representative survey by the research group Wahlen (Elections), published by ZDF as part of its political barometer, the Greens are currently polling at 22 percent.
The Christian Democrats (CDU), on the other hand, would receive 26 percent – a significant drop from the 2013 elections, which they won with 38.3 percent of the vote – while the (SPD) could count on 20 percent. Both the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Left Party (Die Linke) are polling at eight percent.
A coalition of the Greens, the SPD and the Left Party is theoretically possible – with the top Green candidate and Current State Economics Minister Tarek Al-Wazir as the new minister president, reported Zeit Online on Thursday. Al-Wazir, born in Offenbach am Main, has been active in Hesse's state parliament since 1995, and was leader of the Greens between 2000 and 2014.
Al-Wazir is also the most popular politician in the state, according to the survey. On a scale of plus five to minus five, he scored 1.7. Bouffier polled at 1.2, and SPD state leader Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel at 0.8 percent. Al-Wazir has said so far that he wants to continue the government alliance with the CDU.
According to the poll, the AfD would get twelve percent. This would make the party – which was founded in 2013 in Bad Nauheim in Hesse as a Euro-skeptic party – the fourth strongest force in the state parliament in Hesse.
Could CDU and Greens continue their coalition?
On October 28th, a new state parliament will be elected in Hesse. In the capital of Wiesbaden, a coalition between the CDU and the Greens has governed for five years under Prime Minister Volker Bouffier (CDU). Now both parties are campaigning to continue this government, the first black-green (CDU-Greens) coalition at the state level.
According to the new survey results, however, Bouffier would no longer have a majority in favour. It is only possible to continue governing if the FDP forms a so-called Jamaica Alliance with the CDU and the Greens.
According to the survey, Schäfer-Gümbel will not be able to become minister president himself. In a direct election, the SPD challenger would also clearly lose against the conservative incumbent. According to the survey, 46 percent of those questioned would vote for Bouffier, and only 32 percent for the Social Democrat.
For the survey, the research group Wahlen interviewed 1,035 voters from Monday to Wednesday. According to the data, the statistical error range is three percentage points for a value of 40 percent and two percentage points for a value of ten percent.