Stay tuned as for more detailed coverage about the result, and the reaction, in the following days. Read our previous coverage about the election campaign – and its many surprises – here.
Last post at 9:45 p.m. The latest election result projections are in, according to survey specialist infratest dimap.
— BR24 (@BR24) October 14, 2018
9:40 p.m. Watch this video filmed earlier today to find our what the most important issues are to one Munich-based voter. Do you think they will be met with Munich's new parliament? (Video by Christine Madden)
9:36 p.m. The German media is continuing to analyze the historic election results. Berlin-based Tagesspiegel looks at the AfD and how the party fell short of its own expectations in Bavaria. Why? Because their target was '12 percent plus' and it looks like the party might not hit that number. Estimates predict the AfD will get 10/11 percent.
9:12 p.m. Spiegel Online tweets the latest polling estimates, from broadcasters ARD and ZDF. The largest voting drop-off since previous elections in 2013 is the SPD with 9.4 percent (11.2 percent less than 2013) and the CSU with 37.4 percent (or 10.3 percent less than 2013).
— SPIEGEL ONLINE (@SPIEGELONLINE) October 14, 2018
9:05 p.m. Spiegel reports in an opinion piece that “the CSU's anti-AfD strategy has failed and Horst Seehofer will have to pay for this failure first and foremost”.
8:35 p.m. Katharina Schulze, top candidate of the Bavarian Greens, said her party achieved a “historic result” and that “Bavaria has already changed,” reports Taggesschau.
European Greens politician Reinhard Bütikofer calls it a “lederhosen revolution.”
The “lederhosen revolution” in Bavaria: Greens will probably achieve 18,5% of the vote, more than doubling their previously best result. Conservatives lose >12%, Social Democrats lose >10%. AfD in 4th place, behind CSU, Greens and FW. #Bavaria
— Reinhard Bütikofer (@bueti) October 14, 2018
8:30 p.m. SPD party leader Andrea Nahles said her party was unable to convince voters in Bavaria to support them “and that is bitter”.
She pointed to the Berlin government, where the SPD is part of a coalition with the CDU/CSU, as one of the reasons that the Social Democrats failed to capture votes.
“Surely one of the reasons for the poor performance of the SPD is the poor performance of the grand coalition here in Berlin.”
7:55 p.m. Hubert Aiwanger, federal chairman of the Free Voters (11.5 percent of the vote), tweeted: FREE VOTERS – we want a government that cares more about the everyday problems of the people! Midwives instead of space!
#FREIEWÄHLER – wir wollen eine Regierung die sich wieder mehr um die alltagsprobleme der Menschen kümmert! Hebammen statt Weltraum!
— Hubert Aiwanger (@HubertAiwanger) October 14, 2018
7:45 p.m. CSU leader and Federal Interior Minister Horst Seehofer wants to remain in office despite the severe losses of his party in the state elections in Bavaria, reports Welt.
Seehofer speaking at the CSU HQ in Munich after the vote. Photo: DPA
— ZDF (@ZDF) October 14, 2018
6:50 p.m. The anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), which rails against Muslims and demands that “Merkel must go”, won 11 percent and are now present in 15 of Germany's 16 state assemblies. “The 15th parliament is 'conquered'” the AfD of Bavaria tweeted after their win. AfD party leader in the Bundestag is Alice Weidel already congratulated them at an election party in lower Bavaria.
?VIELEN DANK, wir sind im LANDTAG von #Bayern?
Prognose#CSU 35,5#Grüne 18,5#AfD 11#SPD 10#FreieWaehler 11,5#FDP 5,0#AfDwirkt nun ab heute auch in #München. #Wahlbeteiligung 72,8%
Danke an alle Helfer in Bayern und außerhalb Bayerns.
Der 15te Landtag ist 'erobert'.
— AfD Bayern (@AfD_Bayern) October 14, 2018
6:45 p.m. CSU politicians are already analyzing what's gone wrong. Deputy Minister President of Bavaria, Ilse Aigner, told ZDF that she blamed the Federal Government for the poor performance of the CSU in the state elections.
6:30 p.m. Broadcaster ARD predicts that the CSU will receive 79 out of 180 seats in Bavaria's state parliament, while the Greens will get 40. The SPD will have 21 seats, the AfD 24 and the Free Voters 25. The FDP, who received 5 percent of the vote according to the first forecasts, could have 11.
6:15 p.m. German newspaper Welt has called the election “the most painful election defeat of the past 50 years for the CSU”.
There are also surprises at both ends of the political spectrum: The Greens come in second with a historically strong result (18.5 percent), while the AfD clearly makes the leap into the state parliament with 11 percent.
How did other parties perform? The Free Voters (FW) snagged 11.5 percent, SPD 10 percent, Free Democrats (FDP) 5 percent, and The Left (Die Linke) has 3.5 percent, according to the 6pm exit polls.
5:24 p.m. The AfD are expecting to enter Bavaria's parliament for the first time ever, and as such are setting up for their post-election party. Party leader Alice Weidel already is having the first beer in the small community of Mamming (just under 3,000 residents) in Lower Bavaria.
— Johannes Reichart (@JuanReichart) October 14, 2018
5:15 p.m. The latest survey by public broadcaster ZDF put the CSU at 34 percent, down from 47.7 percent four years ago. While the AfD polled at 10 percent, the surprise stars have been the Greens with 19 percent support.
How does this compare to public opinion throughout Germany? In the latest Emnid poll this afternoon for Bild am Sonntag, support for the CDU-CSU conservative union dropped to an all-time low of 26 percent. In second place were the SPD and Greens, now neck-and-neck at 17 percent each, followed by the AfD at 15 percent.
4:45 p.m. The Greens and AfD likely won't be the only ones causing a stir tonight with their unexpectedly high results. Freien Wähler (Free Voters) party leader Hubert Aiwanger hopes not only for a double-digit result, but also for an alliance with the CSU, or a triple alliance with CSU and FDP.
“For a sensible and stable government in Bavaria”. The Free Voter's last minute push on FB.
The party first entered parliament in 2008 with 10.2 percent of the vote, and have centrist views ranging from more security services to equality in educational opportunities. Read more here about why some Bavarians are casting their votes for them.
4 p.m. “'Being modern and staying Bavarian is not an expression, but rather our agenda.” CSU leading candidate Markus Söder makes a last minute push on Facebook to win voters.
3:45 p.m. Results remain uncertain but the Green Party is already preparing for an election party in Munich after results are announced.
3:45 p.m. An election outlook: “The Christian Social Union (CSU), who have almost single-handedly ruled the wealthy beer-and-lederhosen state since the 1960s, are expected to lose their absolute majority, polls say.
The other partner in Merkel's fragile 'grand coalition', the Social Democrats, are also set to do poorly while the far-right and anti-immigration AfD look certain to enter the state assembly.
The biggest winners, however, may be the left-leaning Greens.” Read more here.
3 p.m. Our Munich-based reporter just spoke to a voter after casting her vote. After being asked if this year's elections are historic, the voter replied. “For forty years, there has been only one party here…” Find out how and why she thinks that's changing today.
2:15 p.m. As of 2 p.m. in Munich, 54.6 percent of voters (including postal voters) had cast their vote, in contrast to the the 49.7 percent who had by the same time in 2013.
2 p.m. Before results are announced, follow our previous coverage of the elections, including this video by Christine Madden in Munich's Marienplatz.
She explores how the party is now polling as the second most popular, while the traditional favourite party, the CSU, is waning in popularity, polling at 34 percent as of Saturday.
12 p.m. There is already a high voter turnout. In Munich, the turnout was 41.1 percent by noon, 3.3 percentage points more than in the last state election five years ago. In Nuremberg, too, more voters cast their votes by noon than in 2013: according to the local electoral office, the figure was 26.1 percent, five years ago 21.2 percent, reported Die Welt.