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Guttenberg risks 'Obama effect,' expert says

The Local · 29 Oct 2010, 08:44

Published: 29 Oct 2010 08:44 GMT+02:00

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In an interview with broadcaster Deutschlandfunk, Heinrich Oberreuter at the University of Passau said that Guttenberg’s popularity was part of an uncertain political party’s search for a saviour. The minister’s conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) and their national sister party, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) continue to lose ground in polls.

Guttenberg, the country’s most popular politician, is in danger of following in the steps of US President Barack Obama, Oberreuter said, explaining that Obama had created a fervour with promises of change that has since died down in the face of political realities.

Oberreuter’s remarks came ahead of the CSU’s party convention on Friday, when party leaders are expected to discuss ways to stabilise their standing.

Remarking on the hype over Guttenberg, CSU party leader and Bavarian premier Horst Seehofer was dismissive in an interview with daily Süddeutsche Zeitung.

Looking back on similar excitement over his own future some 20 years ago, he said: “I was also a candidate for chancellor three times. It will be over quickly – when Guttenberg has to say something over welfare benefits, atomic energy, or the Bundeswehr locations.”

Guttenberg is scheduled to speak with Merkel on Friday, in addition to revealing more about his military reform plans. Conservatives are said to be anxiously awaiting his reception by party members at the convention.

Earlier this month a poll showed nearly a quarter of voters believe Guttenberg would make a better chancellor than the embattled Angela Merkel. Nearly half of the respondents to the Forsa survey said they believed there was no difference between the politicians' abilities, while just 14 percent picked Merkel as the better leader, Stern magazine reported.

Story continues below…

The poll comes amid growing speculation that Guttenberg could eventually be made leader of his party and his strong chances of become the nation’s next conservative chancellor.


The Local (news@thelocal.de)

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Your comments about this article

09:32 October 29, 2010 by majura
He's a Conservative Christian Democrat - That's already disappointing enough.
11:01 October 29, 2010 by Johnne
I like Zu Gutenberg but as a chancelor? :( I don´t know.. maybe some people just feel offended by the "conservative christian democrats" I would prefer choosing one between conservative & christian. I think the guy is a moderate conservative but could he just give the party leadership role a little bit time?
15:32 October 29, 2010 by Major B
" a disappointing 'Obama effect' ". Clearing my throat for this one. Growling a little. O.K., here goes.

Am sure that Mr Guttenburg will have none of the monumental obstacles Pres Obama has had to contend with:

1) Total opposition from members of the minority party in Congress. No, the Bundestag will argue, get to business and politic, but in the end they will do what is best for Germany. Not so with the U.S. Congress where the Fox News Republican Party has blocked everthing, including changing on positions they had previously supported.

2) Health Care_ No, Herr Guttenberg won't have the outright lies, misdirection and fear mongering that embarrassingly took place in America because Germans HAVE UNIVERSAl HEALTH Care and its public is "UNITED" behind this fundamental right.

3) Well, from what I see Mr Guttenberg is 100% German, in a time when, well, undignified remarks about the Turks and Muslims are emanating from Germany. No, being totally Ayran, Guttenberg won't have to contend with that ignorant racial intolerance that Pres Obama has encountered, although his mother and grandparents, the people who raised him, are caucasian. Oh, yes, some Americans never miss an opportunity to be ignorant as hell about concepts of race.

4) Although Germany has fought with its own debt problems, that tough Teutonic conservatism leaves the next Chancellor with a budget in much better shape than the national budget Mr Obama inherited. No huge war debt. No almost near failure of the banking system. An enconomy that is humming and growing -- the envy of the world. Mr Guttenberg won't have to put together and debt package to relieve BMW(my favorite car for 25 years), Volkswagen, Mercedes, or Opel. the German auto industry is in fine shape.

5) Could go on and on but the points are clear. The political climate in Germany, altough at times contentious, is nothing like the toxic chemical waste political environment clouding the air in America. What are the intense human fuels contributing to this stenching pollution?

a) racial intolerance and ignorance b) a crazy extreme far-right coalition that the Americans helped elimanate in Germany after 1945. c) a large uneducated class who can be easily manipulated by Fox News, Limbaugh and the perpetual "its them" crowd. d) an ending recession causing the worst eeconomic climate in America since 1929, causing anxiety and the worst human emotions to come forth.

No, Guttenberg is one of the boys and well entrenched inside the German political system.

What a stupid and unlearned comment to compare Guttenberg's stardom with the hatred and venom Pres Obama has experienced.

And I admire both Merkel and Herr small military Guttenberg.

5) Mr Guttenberg
16:10 October 29, 2010 by dbert4
AND his wife is hot!
18:46 October 29, 2010 by maxbrando
1. It is clear to me that Major B knows really nothing about the U.S.A. The percentage of "people " who oppose Obamacare is about 70% now. It's the people stupid, not just the politicians in Washington.

2. Almost all Democrats are running AWAY from Obama and his health plan. You will see in 4-5 days what a voter revolution has occurred.

3. Obamacare added 30 million new eligibles to the Medicare rolls. Where are the additional Doctors, nurses, tecnicians to takecare of them? These are people who have never paid a dime into any health system. Why don't you pay for them Major B?

4. Obamacare has reduced the amount Doctors can collect for their services. In many places there are NO Doctors who accept Medicare/Medicaid patients.

5. He has required everyone to purchase medical insurance and will severely fine those who don't.

6. Because the price of health insurance is going waay up for employers, they (small shop owners) are going to cancel ALL health insurance plans for their employees. Otherwise, they will go broke.

Major B, it is also obvious thet you livwe in a Socialist country and have no idea of freedom. Why is it that millions still sneak their way into the USA? Because the promise of getting rich still exists there, whereas the only thing Scandinavians have to look forward to is death. I firmly believe the major cause of death in Scandinavia is boredom.
19:51 October 29, 2010 by Major B
Comment: @ maxbrando

Great. You've just finished listening to Limbaugh and now are looking at Fox News where you are reading their talking points one by one. And folks like you just randomly and loosely through out Socialism, not fully even understanding the basic tenents of socialism. The U.S. is nowhere near being a socialist country but the ignorant hear the ignorant and the story keeps getting repeated and embellished. And here you are commenting in a European online magazine of a country which offers its citizens social benefits that American citizens can only dream of. Sure, the doctors are supposed to be wildly rich and overcharge what the hell they want to maximize profits. Never mind that the point of medicine and I thought the "Hippocratic Oath" was to care for people. No, the big insurance companies and drug companies, backed by their powerful cronies in the GOP have you and millions like you fooled into thinking that providing medical coverage for all is bad. Shame. Shame. It is trully sickening.

The US Congress voted and approved the new Health Care bill in the USA. American Presidents, including that ultra conservative, Richard Nixon, wanted to establish health care in the U.S. The problem is the small petty folks like yourself. The democrats are running away because they are spinless and scarred to stand up to the foul mouthed liars who have sullied the noble idea of universal health care. Gosh it is so embarrassing that Americans are looking like fools worldwide over healthcare, when we were supposed to be setting the example for all who sought liberty, freedom and opportunity. I've avoided revealing my background or country of origin on this forum because I didn't want be one of the many fools who get into petty nationalistic fights, considering myself a world citizen. I love , cherish and have served my country, the United States of America with all my heart. I still serve my country with love and heart every day. Don't you DARE question my loyalty or my understanding of freedom And who are you to sling mud at the Scandanavians? And if you are Danish, Swedish, Norwegian or whatever, so what? When I lived in Europe they had three words for people like you -- "the ugly American" who knows it all, has seen it all, and is better than everybody else. I'll pay for everybody's heatlh care when you find a way to get my country out of Iraq. Find a way that Americans can pay the same price for medicine that the Canadians pay. Go ahead and let the big boys keep fooling you.
20:23 October 29, 2010 by ngwanem
@Major B:

why bother to tell maxbrando, what he hates to hear?

he has been promised his place on the "high table" of fortunes and the "the american dream". he is simply doing his perfect job to guard against intrusions in this dream, while hoping he can really hop high to get the pie ahead of others.. .

the word socialism is a "disease" in his mind: why share fortunes with others, when one can hoard all by himself and dominate? dammit he would still need the others to service his needs!!!

we should recommend him to exercise daily - his leg muscles need the strain amidst the sweet excitement of the millionaire dream and in full anticipation of the great leap... alas that day might come...

if not why was the word "hope" invented? aha! i seem to know the answer: hope is cheaper than experiencing the dream in real life :)

ps: btw excellent response you gave!!!
20:35 October 29, 2010 by maxbrando
I created my own dreams, and I live them out by the sweat of my own labor. Unfortunately. there is no more hope in Europe. You have all succumbed to the socialist dream of "free" health care and socialized systems. And it is the lure of highter wages that drive more Doctors migrate to Holland each year than graduate from German medical schools. A fact from the Local.

Lastly, I share because I want to, not because some arrogant bureaucrat in the state government or Brussels tells me to.

As an example, Mr. Bill Gates and Mr. Warren Buffett have given more money away in their lives than all the countries and perole in Europe combined.
20:47 October 29, 2010 by ngwanem
back to the article: what has von und zu Guttenberg really done to suddenly appear as the new star? it all sounds like media hype (yeah his wife is also being pushed on the news-front) or should we say he is already being pushed to the public as the next king? obama and other politicians who appear out of the blue all seem to follow the same king-making script.
22:08 October 29, 2010 by derExDeutsche
the Oba-meaeaea Effect?

You mean the one where 1 Candidate becomes really Popular, not for his Policy, but for the Name of his Political Party? The effect where a Senator whose middle name should have been 'Absent', can Inspire a Billion uninformed sheep to do what again??

Long standing Liberal Policy rearing its ugly head during a recession, when everybody asks, Where did the Money / Debt come from?

All of a sudden , Liberals ascertain, It was the Republicans spending all that Money / debt on benefits , social Programs, and mortgages . Wake up, Idiot. Just because they EXISTED during the Bush Admin, its doesn't mean that he Thought them Up! "Obama inherited it". HAHAHAHA. But I guess you're right, us Conservatives have been giving the money away for far to long now;). Too generous, you're right. I guess all this time, it was the Democrats saying, NO MORE UNION BENEFITS / Tax Breaks!! NO MORE LOANS TO PEOPLE WHO CAN'T AFFORD THEM, NO MORE WASTEFUL SOCIAL SERVICES, ! HAHA. YUp. Thanks, Barney Frank! We love your work;)

Finally Nov. 2nd and Americans can get back to being 'just sooo stoooopid, again.' And thank you for that! And you Germans can think of a Million reasons why Obama is failing except for the most obvious one. As the Beatles might say, HE's 'A LoooooooooooOOOOOOSER' in a Corrupt Losers Party. Eiyayei, Germany, don't let anybody tell you you ain't got imagination.
00:41 October 30, 2010 by Deutschguy
"The Obama effect?"

Guttenberg won't experience an Obama effect mainly because there is no 24 hour cable 'news' channel like Fox and a cross country network of hate radio stations in Germany to make sure that Herr Guttenberg's policies fail.

The only "effect" on Obama is from lies invented and repeated on Fox News and hate radio. Otherwise, there is no Obama effect.
02:00 October 30, 2010 by maxbrando
The problem with people like Deutschguy is that they have no facts at hand. All smear, feelings and emotions - but no facts. It is a fact, from every pollster in the U.S.A. left, right and center, that a large majority of people (tonight almost 60% are very unhappy with Obama. Fox news is the most widely watched channel in America, and has more viewers every night than all three other networks combined. This is also a fact. Look it up. So stop with the emoting and bring some facts to the table. you live, like most leftists, in a dream world.
13:22 October 31, 2010 by Incredible14U
The so called expert is wrong. The USA is in terminal decline,its not Obama's fault but a succession of bad and sleazy politics and dodgy deals in the economy since Nixon. The worst effect was seen with Bill 'The Cigar Probing' Clinton the USA is morally, politicaly and economical dead for many years.

On the other hand Germany has risen to a new plateau. It has come out of the latest recession in one piece and now desires a strong leader to hold it and europe together. Karl Theodore Zu Guttenberg Baron of the Holy Roman Empire is the man with the glitz and the glamour to take Germany and the european union forward to levels not seen since the Roman Empir was at it zenith. For more read 'Germany and the Holy Roman Empire'
14:51 October 31, 2010 by moonstep1969
Now that's one thing I've always appreciated about the German Chancellor - no-one can accuse her of being charismatic.

To be a rising star of a politician is one thing, to take charge of a government another. I don't believe that Zu Guttenberg would do better in the EU than her. However, most voters look more for home issues than international ones when deciding which party to support. And obviously the CDU/CSU is doing badly on home issues.

Our government in Sweden were trailing in the polls in 2008, approx. 20% behind the red-green opposition. Due to excellent handling of the global financial crisis, the wheels were turning and the government was re-elected in Sept. this year. In other words, three years is a long time in politics so the CDU/CSU might turn the wheel too.

Merkel's biggest problem is her coalition partner FDP. For some reasons, the government functioned much better with the SPD.
15:47 October 31, 2010 by Deutschguy
Here's some facts for the Obama bashers and Fox Spews defenders:

"The Obama administration cut taxes for middle-class Americans, expects to make a profit on the hundreds of billions of dollars spent to rescue Wall Street banks and has overseen an economy that has grown for the past five quarters."


The GOP, Fox, and hate radio distort and lie everyday about the Obama administration. The popularity of Fox/hate radio repeat these 'big lies' 24/7. Now, even the Chamber of Commerce launders money from Big Banks, Big Insurance, and foreign based companies to spread more misinformation, much to the economic harm of the US public.

"the Treasury said it had recovered most of the $245 billion spent on the Wall Street bank part of the rescue, and expects to turn a $16 billion profit. In the Bloomberg poll, 60 percent of respondents say they believe most of the TARP money to the banks is lost and only 33 percent say most of the funds will be recovered."

It's irrelevant that Fox has high viewership numbers.
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