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Scientists predict colder European winters to come

The Local · 15 Apr 2010, 11:53

Published: 15 Apr 2010 11:53 GMT+02:00

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The study in “Environmental Research Letters” compared recent low sun spot activity to a solar period called the “Maunder minimum” in the second half of the 17th century, when even the Thames River froze over in London. The period of harsh winters is frequently called "The Little Ice Age."

In the last 11 years, sun spot activity has been at a 90-year low, providing the researchers from the University of Reading, the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in Oxfordshire, and the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research in Katlenburg-Lindau with a special opportunity to compare historic temperature records with sun activity and investigate how this connects to cold winters in the region.

Their work showed that periods of quieter sun activity influenced atmospheric conditions, creating a “blocking” effect against warm Atlantic air that would normally reach the region, resulting in colder winters.

The meteorological changes affect the jet stream above the region, rerouting the usual mild westerly winds and allowing cold and dry wind to gust over Europe – adding to an overall lower temperature.

The study said that conditions even suggest an eight percent chance that a chilly Maunder minimum-like era could occur once again.

But the scientists insisted that their findings did not disprove the theory of climate change.

“We stress that this is a regional and seasonal effect relating to European winters and not a global effect,” the study said, adding that “results presented here indicate that, despite hemispheric warming, the UK and Europe could experience more cold winters than during recent decades.”

To reach this conclusion, the UK researchers incorporated data from the Central England temperature (CET) record, which dates back 351 years, with sun activity data put together by the Max Planck specialists.

Story continues below…

Director the Institute for Solar System Research there Sami K. Solanki said he used magnetic field measurements to measure sun activity, but because these records date back to just 1900, researchers reconstructed older levels with the help of computer simulations.

“The connection between sun activity and the cold winter in Europe was only recognisable after we calculated out the overlaying trend of global warming,” Solanki said in a statement.

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Your comments about this article

13:07 April 15, 2010 by William Thirteen
cue the climate wingnuts....
13:34 April 15, 2010 by auslanderus
May I ask, what happened to global warming? This kind of shoots that idea down.
14:05 April 15, 2010 by ron1amr
Global warming is extremes in hot and cold. But now the terminology has changed to climate change. Wait till the end of summer and then make a comment. Take note of temperatures around the world. For instance Perth Western Australia had the hottest summer on record and this trend is set in most Countries. I have been aware for about ten years that the world is slowly moving towards another ice age. But with the trend of global warming this changes the weather patterns somewhat.

Less rainfall as a result of land clearing ie South America which has 1/3 of the worlds oxygen. Nasa studied years ago the amount of water produced from the rain forests in Brazil. You take away trees means you will get less rainfall. Bleaching of coral reefs in Queensland as a result of warmer seas. you just need to study the impact of global warming around the world to realize that we are faced with less water which will be a problem in years to come. Each year we will think what has the year have in store for us? You will need to be extremely ignorant or have a financial interest to deny all. I think the latter is more probably the reason. I work in the building and am out in the weather every day. Different from sitting in a air conditioned office, I know the sun has got more bite in it. ( ultra violet light) its the greed of people, companies politicians who controlled by oil companies and wish to get reelected, which make it hard to make a positive change in our habits. But with Germany building wind farms we are heading in the right direction.
14:39 April 15, 2010 by Hebbellover
Ahhh...I find it rather amusing that so many that swear that Climate Change is A fact (blind faith really) that they will not listen to contrary ideas. I sure hope Germany's Varta Automotive batteries are better than Von Paulus' 3 Armee or you won't be going very far with your Smart for two cars!
15:40 April 15, 2010 by William Thirteen
i think you are referring to General Paulus' command of the Sixth Army - perhaps accuracy is not your strong suit
15:41 April 15, 2010 by dbert4
@auslanderus - Apples and oranges.
23:06 April 15, 2010 by Logic Guy
Well, the term Global Warming was inappropriate from the beginning, because it simply does not throughly define the various changes regarding the climate.

As with humans, earth's environment has a Physiology.

Chnages in air, wind, moisture and sun determines the weather.

However, there appears to be "abnormanl changes nowdays.

All over the world, we are beginning to see more "extreme and unusual" weather.

No man can say for sure that he knows the truth. Therefore logic truly is the king.
00:47 April 16, 2010 by pepsionice
I sat there in 2004, watching a German environmentalist explain how sun spots and solar winds didn't have any effect on weather on Earth. The journalist never batted an eye and accepted the whole thing. Then my German wife spoke up to say that Americans were dim on this whole thing and need true science explained to them like this guy. It's sad that you have a bogus news environment and folks just accept this stuff without any questions.
15:39 April 16, 2010 by Freedom_Beats_Socialism
Whatever happened to those horny-hat Vikings in Greenland?

Did not vast ice sheets melt away about 10,000 years ago? Must have been too many Paleolithic camp fires, I guess.

All this blather and drivel from fear mongers about "extreme" or "unusual" or "abnormal" weather is pathetic. The source of the problem can be identified by finding the source(s) of money for corrupt "scientists," journalists, and dummkopf environMENTALists.
17:00 April 16, 2010 by Hebbellover
@ William Thirteen - 6 Armee, I fat fingered it.

Well the fact is, Varta batteries suck!
17:55 April 16, 2010 by Talonx

Reread the article, "¦quot;The connection between sun activity and the cold winter in Europe was only recognisable after we calculated out the overlaying trend of global warming,¦quot; Solanki said in a statement.". They had to account for global warming in order to find this trend.


That's correct, the sun doesn't affect weather (days), it affects climate (years). From day to day the sun won't tell you anything about weather (unless it goes nova), but it can tell you about cumulative weather (climate) over many years (100 in the case of this study) and usually such a change is relative to other overall weather patterns, natural or artificial (see comment to Auslanderus).
15:55 April 17, 2010 by thewholesoul

whether they calculated out the trend of global warming or not the fact remains that co2 is not the 'main' driving factor of climate as has been claimed.

weather is to climate as droplet is to ocean. people are getting tired of these silly word games. the weather in china, africa, and the united states has been experiencing unusually cold weather. there was even snow in saudia arabia! to claim unusually warm weather = global warming; and then to claim that unusually cold weather is not climate - is a bunk argument.

nobody is buying the alarmism anymore - the glaciers in the himalayas are not going to disappear in 25 years, antartic ice is doing just fine and now the north pole has practically 'recovered' despite the alarmists predictions.

see for yourself http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

according to Al goricle the more co2 in the atmosphere the WARMER it gets. there has not been a warming in around a decade! the climategate scandel revealed what a growing number of critical minded individuals understand, namely - that AGW is a frawd designed to invent more taxation which will fund a world government.
19:00 April 17, 2010 by Talonx
@ thewholesoul

I don't know precisely what data you refer to regarding your claim that anyone has said co2 is above all others the main driving factor. With regards global warming certainly, but overall this is not true.

Regardless, the above study is a vindication of the data on global warming (a thing that occurs over a longer time span than 10 years, though even your claim about the past ten years isn't entirely accurate). The scientists needed to factor out the assumed global warming trend in order to account for the sun-cycle-colder winter phenomanon.

As for your global conspiracy claims, laughable. It's funny, you would think that if 'THEY' really had that much control over science and government then 'THEY' wouldn't bother going the long way around to get what 'THEY' wanted.
23:48 April 17, 2010 by C Colter
"¦quot;The connection between sun activity and the cold winter in Europe was only recognisable after we calculated out the overlaying trend of global warming,¦quot; Solanki said in a statement."

AGW data is false; therefore, when this data is removed from the equation we can see the effects on earth tempratures caused by sunspot activity.

When you have nothing to believe in, you will believe in anything that makes you feel good.
11:45 April 18, 2010 by Talonx
@ C Colter

That might make sense, except that the trend they speak about is actual data and not some model. If you want to postulate a global conspiracy go for it, because that is the only way you could expain data falsification. I would again reply to a global conspiracy claim, why wouldn't they choose a quicker route of taking over, this isn't freakin' "24".
11:46 April 18, 2010 by ColoSlim
Don't read about science from the local. Drawing any conclusion or making statements about a news article reporting on a summary of a summary of one study based on an unknown number of variables is equal to discussing a painting when you don't even know what paint or canvas is. Pointless article and comments that are thin beyond thin.

The original paper can be found in the IOP's open access journal at iop dot org.
12:24 April 18, 2010 by Talonx
@ ColoSlim

That's a nice effort to get people to actually look at the research, but most wont even bother, especially those that believe Global Warming is the creation of a global conspiracy.

Fact of the matter is, these people are only willing to discuss a painting without doing the work of figuring out what paint and canvas are.

Step 1, point out the rediculousness of the global conspiracy, step 2 begin presenting them actual data or ask them to trust the scientists (which is not possible without step 1).
18:28 April 18, 2010 by ColoSlim
@ Talonx

Agreed most won't take the time to look at a paper.

The paper has nothing to do with climate change only weather patterns.

Why are people talking about climate change and global warming, when the discussion is about solar activity and how it's temporary effects weather patterns.
18:49 April 18, 2010 by Talonx
@ ColoSlim

Why do people talk about 'Death Panels' in the US anytime someone suggests it might be a good idea to have end-of-life counseling on issues like 'How to write a legal will'? Answer: too many in the world (esp. the US) are credulous enough to listen to and believe small minded reactionary fear-mongers who have expertise in nothing but an opinion about everything (see the Foxnews pundent line-up or Italy's media or publications from the FDP).
04:33 April 19, 2010 by lwsnlnce
Another word for climate change is "weather". There are no unusual weather events. Define "unusual" when referring to weather. Does it rain when there are no clouds in the sky? Or maybe, snow at 80 degrees?
09:26 April 19, 2010 by Talonx
@ ColoSlim

See post by lwsnince for an illustration of my points.
23:11 April 20, 2010 by lwsnlnce
Really though, what is "unusual weather"? And isn't AGW fear mongering? And who brought up death panels?
09:04 April 21, 2010 by Talonx
@ ColoSlim

See next post by lwsnince for further illustration.
02:55 April 23, 2010 by lwsnlnce
Clever! ( ;
03:04 May 11, 2010 by Arclight88
Those Climate Changrs (formerly aka Global Warmers) can't seem to get the message. The Russian Model has proved beyond debate that man's CO2 emissions are of no baring on our climate. Their model was able to recreate former climate scenarios and thus has proved it viability. In stark contrat the most modest UN and Euro models were not even close to recreating the earlier scenarios.

The Sun is THE engine of the Earth's weather and ALWAYS will be. Barring large volcanic eruptions the oceans absorb CO2 and othe "greenhouse" gasses with ease. In fact for those too blind to check facts the oceans of the world contain 200 X the dissolved CO2 as the entire atmosphere. Anybody in doubt now?

This criminal fraud was perpetrated by UN types eager to tax the world and provide a massive, if corrupt, base of operations. The recent exposure of the Univ. of East Anglia's gigantic fraud is grounds for criminal iunvestigation at the highest levels.

For those to dense or obtuse to get it if enected the taxes required to "halt" global warming were estimated to be between $2,000 and $2,500 per year, per family, in perpetuity.

Every time i think of how close these poeple got to stealing this money for their scheme I want to punch the first GW horse's a** I see. This was crime at it's most sinister and deceptive core and it's time we took some heads!

In the end this dispicable lot got it completely, utterlu wrong: The earth is cooling you dopes!

What next...reincarnation as Global Coolers?
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