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ECONOMY

Businesses warned of second wave for financial crisis

German businesses should expect a second wave of the financial crisis soon despite signs of a fragile recovery in the economy, according to an industry association.

Businesses warned of second wave for financial crisis
Photo: DPA

“We will get the second wave of the financial crisis next year,” Mario Ohoven, president of the German Association for Small and Medium-sized Businesses (BVMW), told news agency DDP on Tuesday. “The signs are unmistakable.”

Ohoven also accused certain speculators of not having learned anything from the financial crisis, pointing to the latest speculations with derivatives on the commodity markets. “This is the new bubble to follow the real estate hype,” he said.

But Ohoven saw better prospects in the eurozone countries. “There is €550 billion in toxic assets, of which only a maximum of 60 percent have depreciated,” he said. The rest, he believes, is still lying in bank vaults.

But according to a new assessment published Tuesday by news magazine Der Spiegel, most economic prognoses for the year 2010 have been unnecessarily bleak. According to the magazine, Germany’s reliance on export trade means that while it was disproportionately affected by the global downturn, just as any partial recovery will be disproportionately beneficial to Germany.

The magazine also pointed out that many global indicators suggested that trade around the world is likely to pick up in the New Year.

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ECONOMY

German consumer prices set to rise steeply amid war in Ukraine

Russia's war in Ukraine is slowing down the economy and accelerating inflation in Germany, the Ifo Institute has claimed.

German consumer prices set to rise steeply amid war in Ukraine

According to the Munich-based economics institute, inflation is expected to rise from 5.1 to 6.1 percent in March. This would be the steepest rise in consumer prices since 1982.

Over the past few months, consumers in Germany have already had to battle with huge hikes in energy costs, fuel prices and increases in the price of other everyday commodities.

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With Russia and Ukraine representing major suppliers of wheat and grain, further price rises in the food market are also expected, putting an additional strain on tight incomes. 

At the same time, the ongoing conflict is set to put a dampener on the country’s annual growth forecasts. 

“We only expect growth of between 2.2 and 3.1 percent this year,” Ifo’s head of economic research Timo Wollmershäuser said on Wednesday. 

Due to the increase in the cost of living, consumers in Germany could lose around €6 billion in purchasing power by the end of March alone.

With public life in Germany returning to normal and manufacturers’ order books filling up, a significant rebound in the economy was expected this year. 

But the war “is dampening the economy through significantly higher commodity prices, sanctions, increasing supply bottlenecks for raw materials and intermediate products as well as increased economic uncertainty”, Wollmershäuser said.

Because of the current uncertainly, the Ifo Institute calculated two separate forecasts for the upcoming year.

In the optimistic scenario, the price of oil falls gradually from the current €101 per barrel to €82 by the end of the year, and the price of natural gas falls in parallel.

In the pessimistic scenario, the oil price rises to €140 per barrel by May and only then falls to €122 by the end of the year.

Energy costs have a particularly strong impact on private consumer spending.

They could rise between 3.7 and 5 percent, depending on the developments in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and the German government’s ability to source its energy. 

On Wednesday, German media reported that the government was in the process of thrashing out an additional set of measures designed to support consumers with their rising energy costs.

The hotly debated measures are expected to be finalised on Wednesday evening and could include increased subsidies, a mobility allowance, a fuel rebate and a child bonus for families. 

READ ALSO: KEY POINTS: Germany’s proposals for future energy price relief

In one piece of positive news, the number of unemployed people in Germany should fall to below 2.3 million, according to the Ifo Institute.

However, short-time work, known as Kurzarbeit in German, is likely to increase significantly in the pessimistic scenario.

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