• Germany edition
 
Investor sentiment rises to three-year high
Photo: DPA

Investor sentiment rises to three-year high

Published: 19 Feb 2013 13:31 GMT+01:00
Updated: 19 Feb 2013 13:31 GMT+01:00

The widely watched investor confidence index calculated by the ZEW economic institute soared to 48.2 points in February from 31.5 points in January. It is the third consecutive monthly rise and brings the index to its highest level since April 2010.

Analysts had been expecting a much more modest increase to just 35 points this month. "As the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data show, the German economy cooled noticeably at the end of last year.

But the rise in investors' economic expectations in February suggests that financial market experts are projecting an improvement in the coming months," said ZEW President Wolfgang Franz.

"Experts have ticked off the weak fourth quarter of 2012. In their view, the headwinds for the German economy coming from the eurozone crisis are not as strong as they were a few months ago. If this remains the case in the coming months, the German economy will gain modest momentum again," Franz said.

After GDP growth in Germany slowed throughout 2012, the economy actually contracted by 0.6 percent in the last three months as weak demand in other eurozone countries hurt exports.

Nevertheless, the government, the Bundesbank and other economic experts are convinced that the dip in growth will prove only short-lived and the economy will start growing again in the first quarter of 2013.

That means Germany will have avoided the recession that has entrenched most of its eurozone partners and the single currency area as a whole.

For the survey, ZEW questioned analysts and institutional investors about their current assessment of the economic situation in Germany, as well as their expectations for the coming months.

The sub-index measuring financial market players' view of the current economic situation in Germany slipped by 1.9 points to 5.2 points in February, its lowest level since June 2010.

A frequent criticism against the ZEW index is that it can be volatile and is therefore not particularly reliable. Analysts nevertheless took cheer from the numbers, even if they said they would wait to see whether other sentiment indicators and even hard economic data backed up investor optimism.

The key Ifo business climate index is scheduled to be published later this week. "All in all, financial investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for Germany's economy and seem to expect a recovery with accelerating pace ahead," said Barclays Research analyst Thomas Harjes.

Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen agreed. "A growing percentage of analysts obviously assumes that the German economy has managed to turn around and that an upturn is imminent," he said.

"However, indications as to whether or not they are right will only be provided by the purchasing managers' indices and Ifo business climate, due out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. But these indices are also expected to continue rising."

Natixis economist Johannes Gareis said the two main reasons for the increase in the ZEW index were the easing of the eurozone crisis and the low level of interest rates. "However, the economic situation of Germany's trade partners is for the most part still quite weak, as the fourth-quarter GDP data indicated, and this led to the decrease in the current situation sub-component.

"Despite the upbeat reading, we remain cautious with regards to Germany's prospects, as there are many challenges to overcome in 2013. Nonetheless, we still expect positive growth out of Germany, albeit at a slower pace than 2012," Gareis said.

Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz said said the PMIs and the Ifo index due out at the end of this week will be more important in assessing the extent of the upswing. "We expect further improvements there after the strong gains in recent months," he said.

Capital Economics economist Jennifer McKeown argued that the improvement was partly due to hints of further action on the part of the European Central Bank. But with the ECB's words "yet to be followed up with actions and political risks in Italy growing, we fear that investor sentiment might weaken again before long," she warned.

AFP/mb

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Your comments about this article

15:57 February 19, 2013 by Steve1949
Blah, Blah, Blah.
18:23 February 19, 2013 by smart2012
And car sector just announced the worst January in sales since 1990 (-9%)

And Siemens just announced 7000 people cut in Germany..

agree with Steve 1949.. Just bla bla bla to help Merkel propaganda
Today's headlines
Germany plan air lifts to help fight Ebola
A Liberian man holds his daughter as they wait for treatment for suspected Ebola symptoms in Monrovia. Photo: DPA

Germany plan air lifts to help fight Ebola

Germany and France will send military transport planes to West Africa to help efforts to contain the Ebola epidemic, Chancellor Angela Merkel and military officials said on Friday. READ  

Germany beefs up asylum rules for Balkans

Germany beefs up asylum rules for Balkans

Germany made it harder Friday for people from Bosnia-Herzegovina, Macedonia and Serbia to apply for asylum after lawmakers classified the three Balkan countries as safe, with respect for basic rights. READ  

German Muslims rally against extremism
Muslims pray in Kreuzberg, Berlin, on Friday outside a mosque which was damaged in an arson attack. Photo: DPA

German Muslims rally against extremism

Muslims across Germany held a day of prayers and rallies on Friday to condemn both Islamic extremism and a backlash against their faith that has seen arson attacks on mosques. READ  

German military flight to Iraq starts with a hiccup
The trainers on the air strip in Hohn, Schleswig-Holstein. Photo: Bundeswehr.

German military flight to Iraq starts with a hiccup

Military trainers flew to northern Iraq from Germany on Friday, ahead of a huge delivery of weapons from the German military, but things didn’t initially go as planned. READ  

Munich gets four Euro 2020 matches
Photo: DPA

Munich gets four Euro 2020 matches

UPDATE: Munich will play host to four Euro 2020 games, European football’s governing body Uefa announced in Geneva on Friday, but London was the real winner. READ  

Driver, 18, ploughs into school pupils
The scene by the bus stop outside the school in Diepholz. Photo: DPA

Driver, 18, ploughs into school pupils

An 18-year-old drove into a group of students outside a school in western Germany on Friday morning, injuring several. READ  

View from Germany
'In a globalized world we don't need more loners'
'No' campaign supporters celebrate in Edinburgh after the results were announced. Photo: DPA

'In a globalized world we don't need more loners'

UPDATE: The German government welcomed the result of the Scottish independence referendum on Friday, with Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier calling it the "right decision". READ  

Oktoberfest 2014
Your guide to Munich Oktoberfest's beer
Photo: DPA

Your guide to Munich Oktoberfest's beer

The Local's Oktoberfest guide chugs some of the Bavarian tipple fueling this whole shindig. READ  

Berlin squat ripped apart by fire
Kreuzberg's Cuvrybrache. Photo: DPA

Berlin squat ripped apart by fire

UPDATE: One of Berlin’s biggest squats was torn apart by a fire on Thursday night following an argument. READ  

Sterilized woman gets pregnant, sues doctors
Photo: DPA

Sterilized woman gets pregnant, sues doctors

A woman who gave birth after becoming sterilized has tried and failed to sue the hospital which carried out the operation. READ  

RECEIVE OUR NEWSLETTER AND ALERTS
Photo: DPA
Culture
Your guide to Munich Oktoberfest's tents
Photo: DPA
Hamburg
Drunk teachers ruin school trip to Hamburg
Marks & Spencer
Sponsored Article
Fashion Ladies of the Local: Win a New Autumn Look
Photo: DPA
Gallery
Oktoberfest 2014: The best and worst in dirndl fashion
Photo: Shutterstock
Gallery
Ten German words you'll never want to hear again
Photo: DPA
Education
German universities tumble in global rankings
Photo: Shutterstock
Business & Money
The three types of firms hiring foreigners
Photo: DPA
Berlin
Frisky couple shock Berlin commuters
Sponsored Article
Bilingual education from nursery to graduation at Phorms
Photo: DPA
Business & Money
JobTalk: All you need to know about working in Germany
National
Share news tips with The Local Germany
Latest news from The Local in Austria

More news from Austria at thelocal.at

Latest news from The Local in Switzerland

More news from Switzerland at thelocal.ch

Latest news from The Local in Denmark

More news from Denmark at thelocal.dk

Latest news from The Local in Spain

More news from Spain at thelocal.es

Latest news from The Local in France

More news from France at thelocal.fr

Latest news from The Local in Italy

More news from Italy at thelocal.it

Latest news from The Local in Norway

More news from Norway at thelocal.no

Latest news from The Local in Sweden

More news from Sweden at thelocal.se

3,348
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd