• Germany edition
 
Investor sentiment rises to three-year high
Photo: DPA

Investor sentiment rises to three-year high

Published: 19 Feb 2013 13:31 GMT+01:00
Updated: 19 Feb 2013 13:31 GMT+01:00

The widely watched investor confidence index calculated by the ZEW economic institute soared to 48.2 points in February from 31.5 points in January. It is the third consecutive monthly rise and brings the index to its highest level since April 2010.

Analysts had been expecting a much more modest increase to just 35 points this month. "As the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data show, the German economy cooled noticeably at the end of last year.

But the rise in investors' economic expectations in February suggests that financial market experts are projecting an improvement in the coming months," said ZEW President Wolfgang Franz.

"Experts have ticked off the weak fourth quarter of 2012. In their view, the headwinds for the German economy coming from the eurozone crisis are not as strong as they were a few months ago. If this remains the case in the coming months, the German economy will gain modest momentum again," Franz said.

After GDP growth in Germany slowed throughout 2012, the economy actually contracted by 0.6 percent in the last three months as weak demand in other eurozone countries hurt exports.

Nevertheless, the government, the Bundesbank and other economic experts are convinced that the dip in growth will prove only short-lived and the economy will start growing again in the first quarter of 2013.

That means Germany will have avoided the recession that has entrenched most of its eurozone partners and the single currency area as a whole.

For the survey, ZEW questioned analysts and institutional investors about their current assessment of the economic situation in Germany, as well as their expectations for the coming months.

The sub-index measuring financial market players' view of the current economic situation in Germany slipped by 1.9 points to 5.2 points in February, its lowest level since June 2010.

A frequent criticism against the ZEW index is that it can be volatile and is therefore not particularly reliable. Analysts nevertheless took cheer from the numbers, even if they said they would wait to see whether other sentiment indicators and even hard economic data backed up investor optimism.

The key Ifo business climate index is scheduled to be published later this week. "All in all, financial investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for Germany's economy and seem to expect a recovery with accelerating pace ahead," said Barclays Research analyst Thomas Harjes.

Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen agreed. "A growing percentage of analysts obviously assumes that the German economy has managed to turn around and that an upturn is imminent," he said.

"However, indications as to whether or not they are right will only be provided by the purchasing managers' indices and Ifo business climate, due out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. But these indices are also expected to continue rising."

Natixis economist Johannes Gareis said the two main reasons for the increase in the ZEW index were the easing of the eurozone crisis and the low level of interest rates. "However, the economic situation of Germany's trade partners is for the most part still quite weak, as the fourth-quarter GDP data indicated, and this led to the decrease in the current situation sub-component.

"Despite the upbeat reading, we remain cautious with regards to Germany's prospects, as there are many challenges to overcome in 2013. Nonetheless, we still expect positive growth out of Germany, albeit at a slower pace than 2012," Gareis said.

Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz said said the PMIs and the Ifo index due out at the end of this week will be more important in assessing the extent of the upswing. "We expect further improvements there after the strong gains in recent months," he said.

Capital Economics economist Jennifer McKeown argued that the improvement was partly due to hints of further action on the part of the European Central Bank. But with the ECB's words "yet to be followed up with actions and political risks in Italy growing, we fear that investor sentiment might weaken again before long," she warned.

AFP/mb

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Don't miss...X
Left Right

Your comments about this article

15:57 February 19, 2013 by Steve1949
Blah, Blah, Blah.
18:23 February 19, 2013 by smart2012
And car sector just announced the worst January in sales since 1990 (-9%)

And Siemens just announced 7000 people cut in Germany..

agree with Steve 1949.. Just bla bla bla to help Merkel propaganda
Today's headlines
Glass memorial honours Nazi disabled victims
Floral tributes were laid on Tuesday at the new Holocaust memorial in Berlin. Photo: DPA

Glass memorial honours Nazi disabled victims

A 24-metre blue glass wall in Berlin has been unveiled to commemorate the systematic murder of up to 300,000 mentally ill and disabled people under Adolf Hitler. READ  

Germany to help with Mediterranean refugees
Migrants aboard an Italian navy patrol vessel in April 2014. Photo: DPA

Germany to help with Mediterranean refugees

Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière on Tuesday pledged support for his Italian colleague in the struggle to manage refugees trying to reach the European Union via its southern coast. READ  

Ice bucket challenge raises €500,000 in a week
Elephant Nelly takes part in the ice bucket challenge in a Lower Saxony safari park. Photo: DPA

Ice bucket challenge raises €500,000 in a week

The coffers of the German Society for Muscular Disease (DGM) are overflowing with donations thanks to the viral craze for videos of donors dousing themselves with ice-cold water. READ  

Russian-German school opens in teeth of conflict
The GRIAT will open in the Russian city of Kazan. Photo: Shutterstock

Russian-German school opens in teeth of conflict

The German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) is pressing ahead with its German-Russian Institute of Advanced Technologies (GRIAT) against a backdrop of international tensions over Ukraine. READ  

Schweinsteiger is new Germany captain: Löw
Photo: DPA

Schweinsteiger is new Germany captain: Löw

Bastian Schweinsteiger will replace fellow Bayern Munich player Philipp Lahm as captain of the German national football team, head trainer Joachim Löw said on Tuesday. READ  

Munich minister resigns in 'model car scandal'
Christine Haderthauer at her resignation press conference in Munich on Monday. Photo: DPA

Munich minister resigns in 'model car scandal'

Christine Haderthauer, head of the Bavarian state chancery, resigned “with immediate effect” on Monday evening over the so-called “model car scandal” in which her company sold scale models built by a man convicted of three sexual murders. READ  

Russia 'severed' from Europe: President Gauck
President Gauck stands shoulder to shoulder with President Komorowski of Poland in Gdansk on Monday. Photo: DPA

Russia 'severed' from Europe: President Gauck

Russia has "effectively severed its partnership" with Europe and wants to establish a new order, German President Joachim Gauck said on Monday. READ  

National Uber ban is revenge of the taxis
Taxis are a powerful trade lobby in Germany. Photo: DPA

National Uber ban is revenge of the taxis

The Frankfurt regional court has imposed a temporary nationwide ban on chauffeur car service Uber, saying that it must pay a €250,000 fine if passengers continue to book rides through its app. READ  

Sex party 'desecrates' Bavarian royal spa
The facade of the Bad Reichenhall Royal Spa Hotel.

Sex party 'desecrates' Bavarian royal spa

The Bavarian finance ministry has demanded a report from the company running a publicly-owned spa in the town of Bad Reichenhall after they rented the property out for a fetish party. READ  

Merkel details Iraq arms shipment to MPs
Angela Merkel addressing the Bundestag on Monday as her ministers look on. Photo: DPA

Merkel details Iraq arms shipment to MPs

UPDATE: Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed the Bundestag on Monday to explain her government's decision to send weapons to Iraqi Kurds fighting terrorist group Isis. READ  

RECEIVE OUR NEWSLETTER AND ALERTS
Sponsored Article
Bilingual education from nursery to graduation at Phorms
Photo: Shutterstock
Gallery
Ten of the oddest things found by German border control
Photo: Gerkan, Marg and Partners/Tegel Projekt GmbH/J. Mayer
Berlin
How will Berlin look in five years' time?
Photo: DPA
Culture
Sprechen Sie Deutsch? 10 reasons why you should
Photo: DPA
Gallery
The best of Berlin's mayor Klaus Wowereit in 14 pictures
Photo: DPA
Politics
Germany sends burgers and sausages to Kurds
Photo: Matthias Kock
National
Tribes, ties and a movie: A German's Afghan life
Photo: DPA
Gallery
10 things to do before summer in Germany is really over
Photo: DPA
Gallery
The mysteries of Berlin's abandoned theme park
Photo: Europeana.de 1914 - 1918
Gallery
A German soldier's life behind WWI lines
Photo: DPA
Business & Money
JobTalk: All you need to know about working in Germany
National
Share news tips with The Local Germany
Latest news from The Local in Austria

More news from Austria at thelocal.at

Latest news from The Local in Switzerland

More news from Switzerland at thelocal.ch

Latest news from The Local in Denmark

More news from Denmark at thelocal.dk

Latest news from The Local in Spain

More news from Spain at thelocal.es

Latest news from The Local in France

More news from France at thelocal.fr

Latest news from The Local in Italy

More news from Italy at thelocal.it

Latest news from The Local in Norway

More news from Norway at thelocal.no

Latest news from The Local in Sweden

More news from Sweden at thelocal.se

3,413
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd