• Germany's news in English
 
app_header_v3

Investor sentiment rises to three-year high

The Local · 19 Feb 2013, 13:31

Published: 19 Feb 2013 13:31 GMT+01:00

The widely watched investor confidence index calculated by the ZEW economic institute soared to 48.2 points in February from 31.5 points in January. It is the third consecutive monthly rise and brings the index to its highest level since April 2010.

Analysts had been expecting a much more modest increase to just 35 points this month. "As the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data show, the German economy cooled noticeably at the end of last year.

But the rise in investors' economic expectations in February suggests that financial market experts are projecting an improvement in the coming months," said ZEW President Wolfgang Franz.

"Experts have ticked off the weak fourth quarter of 2012. In their view, the headwinds for the German economy coming from the eurozone crisis are not as strong as they were a few months ago. If this remains the case in the coming months, the German economy will gain modest momentum again," Franz said.

After GDP growth in Germany slowed throughout 2012, the economy actually contracted by 0.6 percent in the last three months as weak demand in other eurozone countries hurt exports.

Nevertheless, the government, the Bundesbank and other economic experts are convinced that the dip in growth will prove only short-lived and the economy will start growing again in the first quarter of 2013.

That means Germany will have avoided the recession that has entrenched most of its eurozone partners and the single currency area as a whole.

For the survey, ZEW questioned analysts and institutional investors about their current assessment of the economic situation in Germany, as well as their expectations for the coming months.

The sub-index measuring financial market players' view of the current economic situation in Germany slipped by 1.9 points to 5.2 points in February, its lowest level since June 2010.

A frequent criticism against the ZEW index is that it can be volatile and is therefore not particularly reliable. Analysts nevertheless took cheer from the numbers, even if they said they would wait to see whether other sentiment indicators and even hard economic data backed up investor optimism.

The key Ifo business climate index is scheduled to be published later this week. "All in all, financial investors are increasingly bullish about the outlook for Germany's economy and seem to expect a recovery with accelerating pace ahead," said Barclays Research analyst Thomas Harjes.

Commerzbank economist Ralph Solveen agreed. "A growing percentage of analysts obviously assumes that the German economy has managed to turn around and that an upturn is imminent," he said.

"However, indications as to whether or not they are right will only be provided by the purchasing managers' indices and Ifo business climate, due out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. But these indices are also expected to continue rising."

Natixis economist Johannes Gareis said the two main reasons for the increase in the ZEW index were the easing of the eurozone crisis and the low level of interest rates. "However, the economic situation of Germany's trade partners is for the most part still quite weak, as the fourth-quarter GDP data indicated, and this led to the decrease in the current situation sub-component.

Story continues below…

"Despite the upbeat reading, we remain cautious with regards to Germany's prospects, as there are many challenges to overcome in 2013. Nonetheless, we still expect positive growth out of Germany, albeit at a slower pace than 2012," Gareis said.

Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz said said the PMIs and the Ifo index due out at the end of this week will be more important in assessing the extent of the upswing. "We expect further improvements there after the strong gains in recent months," he said.

Capital Economics economist Jennifer McKeown argued that the improvement was partly due to hints of further action on the part of the European Central Bank. But with the ECB's words "yet to be followed up with actions and political risks in Italy growing, we fear that investor sentiment might weaken again before long," she warned.

AFP/mb

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Your comments about this article

15:57 February 19, 2013 by Steve1949
Blah, Blah, Blah.
18:23 February 19, 2013 by smart2012
And car sector just announced the worst January in sales since 1990 (-9%)

And Siemens just announced 7000 people cut in Germany..

agree with Steve 1949.. Just bla bla bla to help Merkel propaganda
Today's headlines
I’m ashamed of Germany’s refugee failure: Green leader
Cem Özdemir. Photo: DPA

The head of the Green Party has responded angrily to Angela Merkel’s speech on refugees on Friday, saying he feels “ashamed at Germany’s failure".

German satirists mock Erdogan (and his penis)
Photo: DPA

Tempting fate?

Huge pro-Erdogan rally puts strain on Turkish community
Erdogan supporters at a rally in 2014. Photo: DPA

Tens of thousands of supporters of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plan to rally in Cologne on Sunday, as tensions over Turkey's failed coup have put German authorities on edge.

Opinion
How the Berlin startup scene is wasting its potential
Photo: DPA

"The truth is, there really isn't a truly successful international Berlin startup."

Five years' jail for German darknet weapons dealer
Photo: DPA

He had sold weapons to known Isis-sympathizers and far-right extremists.

Prickly Bavarian calls out cops on hedgehogs' noisy sex
Photo: DPA

Caught in the act.

International or German state school - which one's best?
Photo: DPA

Deciding between sending your child to a German state school or a private international school isn't easy. Max Bringmann has experienced both.

13 mortifying mistakes German learners always make

Sure-fire ways to get off on the wrong foot in the German language.

Captain Schweinsteiger retires from international football
Bastian Schweinsteiger. Photo: DPA

He has won a World Cup with Die Mannschaft and captained them at Euro 2016. On Friday Bastian Schweinsteiger announced his retirement from the national team.

Woman accused of false rape allegation at Cologne NYE
Cologne on New Year's Eve. Photo: DPA

According to latest reports, the woman was not even in Cologne on New Year's Eve.

Sponsored Article
Why you should attend an international job fair
Travel
Enter if you dare: Berlin's best abandoned haunts
DPA
Gallery
IN PICTURES: How Munich responded to shooting spree
Lifestyle
10 rookie errors all Brits make when they arrive in Germany
Sponsored Article
Why Swiss hospitality graduates are in demand
National
Bavaria train attack: Were police right to shoot to kill?
Sponsored Article
Five things Americans should know about voting abroad
National
How to get German citizenship (or just stay forever)
Technology
Brexit will turn Berlin into 'Europe’s startup capital'
Travel
Six soothing day trips to escape the bustle of Berlin
International
'Germany needs to make UK come to its senses'
Sponsored Article
Why expats choose international health insurance
Features
Six odd things Germans do in the summer
Travel
These 10 little-known German towns are a must see
Sponsored Article
Health insurance for expats in Germany: a quick guide
Features
How two gay dads cut through German red tape to start a family
National
Five things to know about guns in Germany
Culture
10 things you need to know before attending a German wedding
National
Eight weird habits you'll pick up living in Germany
Sponsored Article
Why Swiss hospitality graduates are in demand
Lifestyle
Six reasons 'super-cool' Berlin isn't all it's cracked up to be
Society
Only one country likes getting naked on the beach more than Germany
Sponsored Article
Why you should attend an international job fair
Lifestyle
23 ridiculously fascinating things you never knew about Berlin
Culture
8 German words that perfectly sum up your 20s
Lifestyle
Can't make it past the door at Berlin's most famous club? Help is at hand
Business & Money
Why Frankfurt could steal London's crown as Europe's finance capital
Features
6 surprising things I learned about Germany while editing The Local
10,786
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd