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German economy to be overtaken by 2060
Photo: DPA

German economy to be overtaken by 2060

Published: 10 Nov 2012 13:20 GMT+01:00
Updated: 10 Nov 2012 13:20 GMT+01:00

Germany's importance as an economic player will decline significantly by 2060 as its population grows older and in the face of China and India's rapid growth, the OECD has reported.

Germany's days as the fifth largest economy in the world are numbered, according to a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released on Friday.

Germany's economy - currently only behind the USA, China, Japan and India in terms of size, is set be surpassed by Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Britain and Russia, by 2060, predicted the organisation.

According to the OECD, the main reason for the slump in Germany's share of world economic performance - which will drop from 4.8 percent today to 2 percent in 50 years' time - is demographic change, as its population grows older - a phenomenon also due to hit Japan on a large scale.

China, set to overtake the USA in four years as the world's biggest economy, helped by a population of over 1.3 billion, has already this year contributed more to the world economy than all eurozone countries combined. By 2060 India will also have overtaken Europe, said OECD.

The organisation hopes this “shift of economic weight towards low wage countries” will help raise living standards in the poorest areas of the world. Per capita income is expected to quadruple in the world's most impoverished nations by 2060, narrowing the current gap between the living standards of the world's richest and poorest people.

“Courageous structural reforms can stimulate growth and improve living conditions everywhere in the world,” said OECD General Secretary Angel Gurría.

DPA/The Local/jlb

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

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Your comments about this article

02:27 November 11, 2012 by Gottfried Falc Rittermarsch
Comment removed by The Local for breach of our terms.
05:05 November 11, 2012 by DOZ
Good lock with that. Your demise will be before 2030 unless you amalgamate with Russia. The amalgamation will include ideology. The West is falling quickly.
09:15 November 11, 2012 by ovalle3.14
Comment removed by The Local for breach of our terms.
17:11 November 11, 2012 by sonriete
I think way too much time and energy are spent debating these tables. There will always be a market for German goods and services, Germany will be fine. I don't buy this idea that every country must grow and grow in order to be competitive. What do these people propose as a solution anyway? Massive immigration to pull the population up to 200 Million? The whole world will need to face the fact that human population should be declining, not growing in order to have balance between man and nature. For populations to decline, they naturally must also age dramatically the first few decades to reach that correct balance where we do not destroy this earth.
11:16 November 12, 2012 by Berlin fuer alles
Well said sonriete. All we hear is what business needs to continue growing profits and nothing about how the earth's natural resources cannot continue to support this. If a company's profits grow at a slower rate than previously this is considered a negative. They want profits to grow at a faster pace than previously. Why should it not be positive for a company to continue making a profit even if it is less than previously? If I had a business that made one million profit in a year and the next year it made 750K profit I would still be happy.
16:53 November 12, 2012 by MrNosey
The predictions are rubbish, as always. They're based on a straightline extrapolation of past trends without bearing in mind that growth rates in the BRICS will also slow as they become wealthier. China also has a fast-approaching demographic timebomb because of its one-child policy, not to mention political troubles ahead.
20:41 November 12, 2012 by 883
MrNosey:

WELL SAID. So many seem to overlook the problems that China has looming. Long term, their concerns are some of the most daunting for them AND for other nations.
00:20 November 13, 2012 by bobmarchiano
2060 Our governments cant handle 2013 yet.

European counties will need to get a handle on Greece,Italy and Spain first.
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