In a report entitled “Afghanistan till 2014 – a prognosis,” seen by Der Spiegel magazine, the BND said it expects the situation to get worse and attempts to re-educate former Taliban fighters have shown “no effect” on the peace process.
Even after the official troop withdrawal set for the end of 2014, the BND estimates that some 35,000 foreign soldiers will be needed in the country to work with the Afghan army to stabilise the country and fight insurgents.
The US government announced on Sunday that it had lost 2,000 troops in the fight in Afghanistan – including two Americans, a soldier and a civilian, who died Sunday in a so-called blue against green attack, which is thought to have been carried out by an Afghan soldier working with American troops.
The US government has suspended joint military maneuvers as the attacks by Afghan soldiers on US military personnel continues.
The BND was especially critical of the Karzai government, saying corruption and nepotism run rampant in the Kabul regime. The report, which is classified as confidential, said the Karzai government is not directed at reform or the promised fight against corruption but on maintaining power.
Karzai's assurances to the West “remain declarations of intention” the report said.
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The BND expects Karzai to push for his older brother's candidacy at elections in 2014 in order to “ensure the maintenance of family interests and power.”