• Germany's news in English
 
app_header_v3

Germany will get 15 golds, say scientists

The Local · 27 Jul 2012, 11:40

Published: 27 Jul 2012 11:40 GMT+02:00

Germany's Olympic prospects look good, according to the Institute of Applied Training Science (IAT) at the University of Leipzig. The institute's scientific prognosis says Germany's 392 athletes will take home precisely 54 medals. Or, to be even more precise, 15 golds, 19 silvers and 20 bronzes.

This will be enough for fifth place in the Olympic medals table, behind China, the USA, Russia, and the UK, the IAT prognosis says. The institute's calculations are based on statistical analysis of the last world championships in each of the 26 Olympic disciplines.

Spookily enough, the US-based Tuck School of Business, one of the world's leading management schools, came up with exactly the same result - Germany to get 15 golds and fifth place - using a formula based on variables like population density, home advantage, average per capita incomes, and previous Olympic winners.

Quietly confident

But even though the researchers claimed a 95-percent success rate for the Beijing Olympics four years ago, when Germany won 16 gold medals, Bernhard Schwank, sports director on Germany's Olympic federation (DOSB), was more cautiously optimistic.

"I'm no prophet," he told Die Welt newspaper. "But I can say that the quality of our team is very high. Our track and field athletes, for example, have 77 representatives. It was only 63 in Beijing."

Germany's biggest medal hopes include Robert Harting, the reigning world and European discus champion and Thomas Lurz, who has ten open water swimming world championships to his name and is the favourite for the 10-kilometre marathon swim.

But Germany has favourites in other discipline too, including equestrian Michael Jung, an eventing European champion, while Germany's eight man rowing team, led by cox Kristof Wilke, is on a three-year unbeaten streak. They will be looking to overturn the disappointment of Beijing, where they lost in a qualifying race.

Other German athletes to look out for are world number one pole-vaulter Silke Spiegelburg, who has just topped the German record, kayaker Max Hoff, favourite in the 1,000-metre singles, and David Storl, who became the youngest ever shot put world champion last year. He turned 22 on Friday.

And of course Germany's men's hockey team has that gold medal from Beijing to defend. The Germans are still considered one of the tournament favourites, even though the team has changed considerably since 2008.

Indifference at home

But while these top athletes strain their sinews in London, a new survey suggests most Germans will not be glued to the television to watch the Games – only a third of them are interested.

Young people in particular seem less than enthusiastic about the Games, with just under 25 percent of teenagers between 14 and 17 telling pollsters at the GfK consumer research society that they were interested. People aged between 18 and 24 were even less excited, with only 21.5 percent of them saying they would definitely be watching the events.

Story continues below…

Low enthusiasm levels could be due to a lack of high-profile German athletes fighting for medals, suggested GfK's Ulrich Reinhardt. He also said the lack of significant time difference between Germany and the UK – just one hour – meant that many of the events would be taking place when Germans were at work.

He said he did not expect television viewing audiences to reach the levels experienced for the Games in Beijing, Barcelona or Athens.

The Local/bk/hc

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Your comments about this article

14:30 July 27, 2012 by The-ex-pat
Great, can we now save all that money, pointless construction and aggravation for the locals..............
16:31 July 27, 2012 by Berlin fuer alles
Oh for the good old days of USSR and DDR when they could predict how many medals they would win by the quality of steroids the government slipped into the food chain of athletes.
17:16 July 27, 2012 by marimay
I honestly thought that was a pic from the special olympics...
Today's headlines
Ansbach suicide attack
Isis says Syrian bomber in Bavaria one of its 'soldiers'
Photo: DPA

The Syrian asylum seeker who blew himself up outside a music festival in Germany was a "soldier" of the Isis, the jihadist-linked Amaq news agency said on Monday.

Merkel's refugee policy was 'reckless': Left Party leader
Photo: DPA

The attacks carried out by refugees over the past week show accepting large numbers of refugees brings "significant problems", the party's chairwoman said on Monday.

Ansbach suicide attack
What we know about the Ansbach suicide bomber
The attacker's rucksack. Photo: DPA

He had had his asylum application rejected and had twice attempted suicide, say authorities.

Ansbach suicide attack
Ansbach suicide bomber confirms Isis loyalty in video
Police remove evidence from the bombers residence. Photo: DPA

The man who blew himself up in Ansbach, Bavaria, on Sunday evening, injuring 15 people, recorded a video in which he pledged his allegiance to terror group Isis.

Top 10 German firms with the highest-paid employees
Photo: DPA

Want to know which companies shell out the most for salaries?

How will Germany change after string of bloody attacks?
A policeman in Ansbach on Sunday evening. Photo: DPA

Within seven days Germany has been hit by four bloody attacks on innocent people on its streets and in a train. What does this unprecedented string of murders mean for the country?

After attacks, minister rejects blanket suspicion of refugees
Thomas de Maiziere. Photo: DPA

Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere on Monday cautioned Germans against indiscriminately branding all refugees a security threat after a rash of attacks over the last week.

What we know about the Reutlingen knife attack
Police arrest the attacker. Photo: DPA

... and what we don't.

Munich shooting
Police arrest possible accomplice of Munich gunman
Mourners in Munich. Photo: DPA

Authorities in Munich believe that a friend of the teenager who murdered nine people at a Munich shopping centre may have known about his plans.

Ansbach suicide attack
Suicide bomber attacks bar in Bavaria
Photo: DPA

A Syrian migrant set off an explosion at a bar in southern Germany that killed himself and wounded a dozen others late Sunday, authorities said, the third attack to hit Bavaria in a week.

Sponsored Article
Why you should attend an international job fair
DPA
Gallery
IN PICTURES: How Munich responded to shooting spree
Sponsored Article
Avoid hidden fees when sending money overseas
Lifestyle
10 rookie errors all Brits make when they arrive in Germany
National
Bavaria train attack: Were police right to shoot to kill?
Sponsored Article
Why Swiss hospitality graduates are in demand
National
How to get German citizenship (or just stay forever)
Sponsored Article
Five things Americans should know about voting abroad
Technology
Brexit will turn Berlin into 'Europe’s startup capital'
Travel
Six soothing day trips to escape the bustle of Berlin
International
'Germany needs to make UK come to its senses'
Features
Six odd things Germans do in the summer
Sponsored Article
Why expats choose international health insurance
Travel
These 10 little-known German towns are a must see
Features
How two gay dads cut through German red tape to start a family
Sponsored Article
Health insurance for expats in Germany: a quick guide
National
Five things to know about guns in Germany
Sponsored Article
Avoid hidden fees when sending money overseas
Culture
10 things you need to know before attending a German wedding
National
Eight weird habits you'll pick up living in Germany
Lifestyle
Six reasons 'super-cool' Berlin isn't all it's cracked up to be
Sponsored Article
Why Swiss hospitality graduates are in demand
Society
Only one country likes getting naked on the beach more than Germany
Lifestyle
23 ridiculously fascinating things you never knew about Berlin
Sponsored Article
Why you should attend an international job fair
Culture
8 German words that perfectly sum up your 20s
Lifestyle
Can't make it past the door at Berlin's most famous club? Help is at hand
Business & Money
Why Frankfurt could steal London's crown as Europe's finance capital
Features
6 surprising things I learned about Germany while editing The Local
Culture
Five sure-fire ways to impress Germans with your manners
10,700
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd