• Germany's news in English
 
app_header_v3

Germany will get 15 golds, say scientists

The Local · 27 Jul 2012, 11:40

Published: 27 Jul 2012 11:40 GMT+02:00

Germany's Olympic prospects look good, according to the Institute of Applied Training Science (IAT) at the University of Leipzig. The institute's scientific prognosis says Germany's 392 athletes will take home precisely 54 medals. Or, to be even more precise, 15 golds, 19 silvers and 20 bronzes.

This will be enough for fifth place in the Olympic medals table, behind China, the USA, Russia, and the UK, the IAT prognosis says. The institute's calculations are based on statistical analysis of the last world championships in each of the 26 Olympic disciplines.

Spookily enough, the US-based Tuck School of Business, one of the world's leading management schools, came up with exactly the same result - Germany to get 15 golds and fifth place - using a formula based on variables like population density, home advantage, average per capita incomes, and previous Olympic winners.

Quietly confident

But even though the researchers claimed a 95-percent success rate for the Beijing Olympics four years ago, when Germany won 16 gold medals, Bernhard Schwank, sports director on Germany's Olympic federation (DOSB), was more cautiously optimistic.

"I'm no prophet," he told Die Welt newspaper. "But I can say that the quality of our team is very high. Our track and field athletes, for example, have 77 representatives. It was only 63 in Beijing."

Germany's biggest medal hopes include Robert Harting, the reigning world and European discus champion and Thomas Lurz, who has ten open water swimming world championships to his name and is the favourite for the 10-kilometre marathon swim.

But Germany has favourites in other discipline too, including equestrian Michael Jung, an eventing European champion, while Germany's eight man rowing team, led by cox Kristof Wilke, is on a three-year unbeaten streak. They will be looking to overturn the disappointment of Beijing, where they lost in a qualifying race.

Other German athletes to look out for are world number one pole-vaulter Silke Spiegelburg, who has just topped the German record, kayaker Max Hoff, favourite in the 1,000-metre singles, and David Storl, who became the youngest ever shot put world champion last year. He turned 22 on Friday.

And of course Germany's men's hockey team has that gold medal from Beijing to defend. The Germans are still considered one of the tournament favourites, even though the team has changed considerably since 2008.

Indifference at home

But while these top athletes strain their sinews in London, a new survey suggests most Germans will not be glued to the television to watch the Games – only a third of them are interested.

Young people in particular seem less than enthusiastic about the Games, with just under 25 percent of teenagers between 14 and 17 telling pollsters at the GfK consumer research society that they were interested. People aged between 18 and 24 were even less excited, with only 21.5 percent of them saying they would definitely be watching the events.

Story continues below…

Low enthusiasm levels could be due to a lack of high-profile German athletes fighting for medals, suggested GfK's Ulrich Reinhardt. He also said the lack of significant time difference between Germany and the UK – just one hour – meant that many of the events would be taking place when Germans were at work.

He said he did not expect television viewing audiences to reach the levels experienced for the Games in Beijing, Barcelona or Athens.

The Local/bk/hc

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Your comments about this article

14:30 July 27, 2012 by The-ex-pat
Great, can we now save all that money, pointless construction and aggravation for the locals..............
16:31 July 27, 2012 by Berlin fuer alles
Oh for the good old days of USSR and DDR when they could predict how many medals they would win by the quality of steroids the government slipped into the food chain of athletes.
17:16 July 27, 2012 by marimay
I honestly thought that was a pic from the special olympics...
Today's headlines
Is German diplomacy getting too chummy with Russia?
Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. Photo: DPA/AFP Pool.

Critics have been questioning the German Foreign Minister's recent series of comments about working closer with Russia, with some labelling the diplomat a "Russia-sympathizer".

Police investigate after mosque door is bricked shut
The bricked-up door. Photo: Facebook/Netzwerk für Flüchtlinge in Parchim.

Unknown people have bricked up the entrance to a mosque in northeastern Germany and stuck racist flyers to their masonry work.

Vice-Chancellor: TTIP trade deal is dead
Photo: DPA

Vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said Sunday that negotiations on a massive trade deal between the European Union and the United States were effectively dead in the water.

Law to force mums to give up identity of child's real father
Photo: DPA

Germany has drafted a law requiring mothers to inform their partners if their children were fathered by another man, Justice Minister Heiko Maas said on Monday.

Gallery
Germans race bulls too, but with a difference
Photo: DPA

The most important sporting events only happen every four years: the World Cup, the Olympics, and of course the Münsing ox race.

Attempted murder charge for Isis teen who stabbed cop
A police officer stands on a train platform at Hannover main station. Photo: DPA

German federal prosecutors said Monday they had brought charges against a 16-year-old girl who allegedly stabbed a policeman in February in an operation for Isis.

Nearly 9,000 refugee children reported missing: report
Refugee children in Hamburg. Photo: DPA.

German media reported on Monday that the number of refugee children reported as missing has doubled to reach nearly 9,000.

EU nations must not refuse Muslim migrants: Merkel
Photo: DPA

The refusal of some EU countries to accept Muslim refugees is "unacceptable", Chancellor Angela Merkel said Sunday as Germany called for quotas to divide the influx throughout the bloc.

Naked swimmer hospitalized after angler hooks his penis
File photo: DPA

When a man swimming naked in a Bavarian lake felt a strange pain in his nether regions, he looked up to see a fisherman on the shore. "Don’t pull!" he shouted.

Study finds rival Rhineland beers 'actually taste the same'
Left: Altbier. Right: Kölsch. Or can you even tell? Photos: DPA.

Cologne and Düsseldorf have a long established rivalry, not least over who has the better home brew. So the results of a new study might be more than they can swallow.

Sponsored Article
Why you should attend an international job fair
National
Ouch! Naked swimmer hospitalized after angler hooks his penis
Sponsored Article
Why expats choose international health insurance
National
Six reasons why Berlin is now known as 'the failed city'
National
15 tell-tale signs you’ll never quite master German
Sponsored Article
Why you should attend an international job fair
Culture
7 American habits that make Germans very, very uncomfortable
Sponsored Article
Life in Jordan: 'Undiscovered treasure'
Rhineland
Story of a fugitive cow who outwitted police for weeks before capture
Culture
Eleven famous Germans with surnames that'll make your sides split
Lifestyle
The best ways to get a visa as an American in Germany
Sponsored Article
Why Jordan is the ‘Different’ East
Gallery
Germany's 17 Olympic gold medals in pictures
Sponsored Article
Five things Americans should know about voting abroad
14 facts you never knew about the Brandenburg Gate
Society
Ten times Germans proved they really, really love beer
Sponsored Article
Jordan Pass: your ticket to the experience of a lifetime
Lifestyle
What's on in Germany: events for August 2016
Sponsored Article
Jordan: where history meets adventure
National
Six things you need to know when moving to Germany
Travel
These 10 little-known German towns are a must see
Sponsored Article
6 reasons expats use TransferWise to send money
International
German scientists prove birds can sleep while flying
Sponsored Article
Why you should attend an international job fair
Technology
London v. Berlin: Which is better for startups?
Sponsored Article
Five things Americans should know about voting abroad
Lifestyle
13 mortifying mistakes German learners always make
Sponsored Article
Jordan: where history meets adventure
Travel
Enter if you dare: Berlin's best abandoned haunts
Sponsored Article
6 reasons expats use TransferWise to send money
Lifestyle
10 rookie errors all Brits make when they arrive in Germany
National
How to get German citizenship (or just stay forever)
Technology
Brexit will turn Berlin into 'Europe’s startup capital'
Travel
Six soothing day trips to escape the bustle of Berlin
International
'Germany needs to make UK come to its senses'
Features
Six odd things Germans do in the summer
7,431
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd