• Germany's news in English
 

German population to shrink by a fifth by 2060

Published: 28 Oct 2011 17:05 GMT+02:00

The report will serve as the basis for government policy to cope with the dramatic decline.

“The management of demographic change is one of the major tasks for the future," said Friedrich at a press conference in Berlin.

He also said the survey could provide a stimulus to modernize the country, which has become increasingly concerned about its ageing population and declining birth rate in recent years. Statisticians now expect that the German population will plunge 21 percent to 65 million by 2060.

The five eastern states, formed after the reunification of West Germany with its formerly communist East Germany, will be most heavily affected by the population decrease.

In Saxony-Anhalt, for example, the population is expected to shrink by 42 percent. Neighbouring Thuringia will also see a 41-percent loss in inhabitants, while Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will experience a decline of 36 percent.

Other states, though not completely unaffected, will face smaller decreases in comparison. Bremen and Bavaria will decrease by 14 and 15 percent, respectively. Hamburg should only shrink by six percent.

Nearly 82 million people currently live in Germany. As more and more people are living longer, though, the number of working citizens is declining. According to the study, 49.8 million of Germany’s inhabitants are aged 20 to 64. Authors of the report expect there to be approximately 6.3 million less people in 2030, and by 2060, every third person in Germany will be at least 65 years old.

Simply speaking, Germany’s population is shrinking because more people are dying than are being born. A stronger rise in birth rates or mass immigration of younger people could help mitigate but not eliminate the problem.

Furthermore, the demographic change will affect almost all areas of life. In 2010, approximately 2.42 million people were dependent on care. According to the report, the number could rise to 3.37 million people by 2030.

DPA/The Local/emh

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Your comments about this article

17:31 October 28, 2011 by Frenemy
Pe@ce out ye ol' geriatric bastards, and good riddance to all your war-guilt ridden policies (and pseudo-utopian socialist tendancies) that have been geopolitically holding us back since 1991.

Politically speaking, I hope this signals a return to realpolitik as opposed to this naive Eurocentric nonsense. As the new generation reaches voting age I hope one of the first things we do is put a stop to this EU/Euro nightmare...

PS: Germans, start making babies goddamit!!
18:49 October 28, 2011 by flipinwotsit
No wonder...Having a baby in this country is very expensive...the kindergeld is a joke as everything is well expensive. Young people say ´No´to kids and yes to careers. They want money for holidays etc..believe me, we have a16 month boy and now he needs a new buggie and carseat....
20:28 October 28, 2011 by catjones
Does that mean the average german will be like one meter tall?
22:44 October 28, 2011 by Englishted
I did read in the English press that at current rates England will be the most populated country in Europe in 30 years (but it is down to immigration manly) .

@flipinwotsit

Don't panic he doesn't need a carseat in his buggy.

p.s. hope you didn't call him Adolf?
23:29 October 28, 2011 by Gretl
Too selfish to breed.

P.S. I have dibbs on Bavaria!
00:14 October 29, 2011 by vonSchwerin
Will the last person to leave Magdeburg please shut off the lights? Danke.
00:30 October 29, 2011 by DoctorEconomy
Maybe this means I will finally get a nice affordable house with a garden near a river for my new family in a community that understands what living is really all about.

Growing my own food has always fascinated me. I wonder if we could install a wind generator there after the exodus. Maybe some solar panels.

And a live music and performance club. Gotta have one of those.
02:52 October 29, 2011 by reallybigdog
All that means is that Germany will replace that deficit with immigrants much like England, however by 2060 England will be 75% immigrants and English will be its 2nd language after Hindi. Germany on the other hand will swing towards being over ridden by the Turks and oh yes soccer will be a real treat then!!
10:41 October 29, 2011 by Bigbobswinden
When you live among people of other faiths or culture you will find they are human just like you.,They have the same hopes and aspirations for their children. Learn to live with others, they have much to offer.

As for the war, if we never have another it will be to soon. I am ashamed of much our politicians do in the name of security or freedom.
12:16 October 29, 2011 by strahlungsamt
Why is this a surprise? Between 400 euro jobs with no pensions, people living in small apartments in cities like Munich or Dusseldorf (where finding affordable accommodation is nearly impossible), Hartz IV and no job prospects for the majority of non professionals (80% of the population), OF COURSE nobody wants to start a big family.

Get real Germany! It's not that people don't want kids, It's because they often can't.
12:41 October 29, 2011 by StoutViking
The population won't shrink, the Greens/Reds will make sure to replace it with "import".
13:31 October 29, 2011 by GolfAlphaYankee
children can give joy and add a since of purpose to life but they used to be (and still are for 3rd world countries) old-age pillars or an investment if you will: the more you have the better your chances to be 'attended' to in your twilight years ..... but since we think we will be financially independent till the end ... having many children is less appealing.

maybe young couples would be more willing to have children if the burden (financial and in time) of rising them is shared with grand parents?
14:47 October 29, 2011 by michael4096
@Frenemy - I trust you were joking, just the thought of returning to the realpolitik of 100 years ago makes me shudder

@strahlungsamt - isn't it the other way around? As people get more free money they have fewer kids. Its those without the money to spend on themselves that are having kids

Forecasting long-term social dynamics is fun but pretty futile. Many people can't even describe today's society correctly when all you need to do is look out the window
19:38 October 29, 2011 by Frenemy
@michael4096: Nope, I wasn't joking. But I also wasn't advocating a return to 1914.

I'm just hoping that contemporary politicians will dispense with childish notions such as "we can all just get along", and that nation-states will somehow act with the "greater good" in mind...
01:05 October 30, 2011 by DavidtheNorseman
@DoctorEconomy - I'm inclined to agree. Why not use the considerable Germanic intellectual currency to develop spacious, sustainable population patterns. Most folks would like a hectare of yard (or a lot more if they are the Jaeger type) and pleasant spacious living rather than the uber-urbanization that seems to be the trend. Simply importing populations to continue population increase seems a bit of a recipe for long-term failure. BTW the percentage of children *worldwide* is decreasing (I take the projections with a grain of salt, but look at the numbers from 1950 - 2010) : http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp
06:58 October 30, 2011 by heyheyhey
When there were only 2 billion humans crawling around on this earth there were too many. Now we have 8 billion, and we worry about a decreasing population size??????

What is wrong with this picture. we NEED to decrease the human population by at least 50%.

STOP BREEDING!
10:17 October 30, 2011 by nolibs
Comment removed by The Local for breach of our terms.
12:05 October 30, 2011 by flipinwotsit
@englishted.

lol...no way. his names Clint and he´s a great kid....he´s worth all our dosh..
22:07 October 30, 2011 by farmy
@ Gretl

When it comes to population, you and I are in full agreement. The Germans need to take lessons from the German immigrants of America in the 1800s. With their super large families, they turned America into the greatest country in the world in a short time. As far as food production, the biggest problem in the worlds Caucasian countries is food surplus, which has led to unwise decisions to turn food into fuels.
Today's headlines
Train strikes
Train drivers confirm new strikes
Trains cancelled. Photo: DPA

Train drivers confirm new strikes

German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) boss Claus Weselsky said on Wednesday that his members would walk off the job after DB refused to accept an ultimatum he issued earlier in the week, although he did not say when or for how long they would strike. READ  

Judge rules smoking senior can't be evicted
Friedhelm Adolfs. Photo: DPA

Judge rules smoking senior can't be evicted

The Supreme Court (BGH) has decided that a landlord had no right to throw out the man being called "Germany's second-most famous smoker after Helmut Schmidt" without due notice. READ  

Fearlessly Jewish on the streets of Munich

Fearlessly Jewish on the streets of Munich

While the world watched with shock as a Jewish man encountered abuse on the streets of Paris for wearing a kippah, The Local talks to a Munich man who has been doing the same for two years - with surprising results. READ  

'Bomb' sent from Germany to Sweden

'Bomb' sent from Germany to Sweden

Swedish police are checking a suspicious package apparently sent from Germany to a local newspaper in Sweden that previously published controversial Muhammad cartoons. READ  

Ukraine crisis
Government condemns Ukraine rebel advance
Ukrainian government troops ride a tank on the way out of Debaltseve on Wednesday. Photo: DPA

Government condemns Ukraine rebel advance

The German government said on Wednesday that pro-Russian rebels' advance into the eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was a serious breach of ceasefire terms agreed last week in Minsk. READ  

The Local List
Germany and the seven deadly sins

Germany and the seven deadly sins

Beer, chocolate, car keys! Lock them all away, say Germans, who more than half say they partake in Lent, the seven-week fasting period before Easter, but more for health rather than religious reasons. READ  

Schäuble rejects Greek bailout without reforms
Wolfgang Schäuble at negotiations in Brussels on Tuesday. Photo: DPA

Schäuble rejects Greek bailout without reforms

UPDATE: A spokesman for Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said on Wednesday that any extension of international loans to Greece beyond the end of the month was "inextricably" linked to reforms agreed to by Athens under its current bailout. READ  

Politician wants last call on late-night beers
Day drinking it is! Photo: DPA

Politician wants last call on late-night beers

A municipal politician is saying that Berlin needs to reconsider its alcohol sales rules and is proposing a ban on booze sales between 10pm and 5am. READ  

Police find 104 rabbits in Stuttgart flat
Imagine ten times this many rabbits. Photo: Shutterstock

Police find 104 rabbits in Stuttgart flat

Police in Stuttgart were in for a hopping surprise when they searched a flat on Tuesday and found it full to bursting with furry mammals. READ  

German reporter 'spy' arrested in Mozambique
A South African National Defense Force sodlier takes part in a training exercise as part of Operation Rhino in the Kruger National Park, South Africa's flagship national wildlife park on 19 July 2011

German reporter 'spy' arrested in Mozambique

Two journalists, a German and a Swede, were held briefly by police on Monday while investigating rhino poaching in southern Mozambique. READ  

RECEIVE OUR NEWSLETTER AND ALERTS
Photo: Police
Rhineland
Student driver crashes tank into family garden.
Photo: DPA
Politics
There was a notable absence at the Anti-Semitism Commission
Sponsored Article
Tourist or lifer: what sort of expat are you?
National
How Dresden bombing still divides Germany, 70 years on
Sponsored Article
Are you an American expat? How to face FATCA
Photo: DPA
Gallery
Take a cute break with this gallery of baby animals
International
What's keeping UK expats from voting?
Photo: DPA
National
Terror alert at a new high. Should you be worried?
Gallery
The best regional foods TTIP opponents want to protect
Photo: DPA
Features
All you ever needed to know about Pegida
Photo: Shutterstock
Culture
This cosplayer did not think his plan through
National
Europe in statistics - from Spain to Sweden
Gallery
Top 12 German idioms
Culture
10 top tips for partying in Germany
Photo: DPA
Technology
What does the Chancellor see as the future of the internet?
Photo: DPA
Business & Money
JobTalk: All you need to know about working in Germany
National
Share news tips with The Local Germany
Latest news from The Local in Austria

More news from Austria at thelocal.at

Latest news from The Local in Switzerland

More news from Switzerland at thelocal.ch

Latest news from The Local in Denmark

More news from Denmark at thelocal.dk

Latest news from The Local in Spain

More news from Spain at thelocal.es

Latest news from The Local in France

More news from France at thelocal.fr

Latest news from The Local in Italy

More news from Italy at thelocal.it

Latest news from The Local in Norway

More news from Norway at thelocal.no

Latest news from The Local in Sweden

More news from Sweden at thelocal.se

3,526
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd