• Germany edition
 
German population to shrink by a fifth by 2060

German population to shrink by a fifth by 2060

Published: 28 Oct 2011 17:05 GMT+02:00
Updated: 28 Oct 2011 17:05 GMT+02:00

The report will serve as the basis for government policy to cope with the dramatic decline.

“The management of demographic change is one of the major tasks for the future," said Friedrich at a press conference in Berlin.

He also said the survey could provide a stimulus to modernize the country, which has become increasingly concerned about its ageing population and declining birth rate in recent years. Statisticians now expect that the German population will plunge 21 percent to 65 million by 2060.

The five eastern states, formed after the reunification of West Germany with its formerly communist East Germany, will be most heavily affected by the population decrease.

In Saxony-Anhalt, for example, the population is expected to shrink by 42 percent. Neighbouring Thuringia will also see a 41-percent loss in inhabitants, while Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will experience a decline of 36 percent.

Other states, though not completely unaffected, will face smaller decreases in comparison. Bremen and Bavaria will decrease by 14 and 15 percent, respectively. Hamburg should only shrink by six percent.

Nearly 82 million people currently live in Germany. As more and more people are living longer, though, the number of working citizens is declining. According to the study, 49.8 million of Germany’s inhabitants are aged 20 to 64. Authors of the report expect there to be approximately 6.3 million less people in 2030, and by 2060, every third person in Germany will be at least 65 years old.

Simply speaking, Germany’s population is shrinking because more people are dying than are being born. A stronger rise in birth rates or mass immigration of younger people could help mitigate but not eliminate the problem.

Furthermore, the demographic change will affect almost all areas of life. In 2010, approximately 2.42 million people were dependent on care. According to the report, the number could rise to 3.37 million people by 2030.

DPA/The Local/emh

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Don't miss...X
Left Right

Your comments about this article

17:31 October 28, 2011 by Frenemy
Pe@ce out ye ol' geriatric bastards, and good riddance to all your war-guilt ridden policies (and pseudo-utopian socialist tendancies) that have been geopolitically holding us back since 1991.

Politically speaking, I hope this signals a return to realpolitik as opposed to this naive Eurocentric nonsense. As the new generation reaches voting age I hope one of the first things we do is put a stop to this EU/Euro nightmare...

PS: Germans, start making babies goddamit!!
18:49 October 28, 2011 by flipinwotsit
No wonder...Having a baby in this country is very expensive...the kindergeld is a joke as everything is well expensive. Young people say ´No´to kids and yes to careers. They want money for holidays etc..believe me, we have a16 month boy and now he needs a new buggie and carseat....
20:28 October 28, 2011 by catjones
Does that mean the average german will be like one meter tall?
22:44 October 28, 2011 by Englishted
I did read in the English press that at current rates England will be the most populated country in Europe in 30 years (but it is down to immigration manly) .

@flipinwotsit

Don't panic he doesn't need a carseat in his buggy.

p.s. hope you didn't call him Adolf?
23:29 October 28, 2011 by Gretl
Too selfish to breed.

P.S. I have dibbs on Bavaria!
00:14 October 29, 2011 by vonSchwerin
Will the last person to leave Magdeburg please shut off the lights? Danke.
00:30 October 29, 2011 by DoctorEconomy
Maybe this means I will finally get a nice affordable house with a garden near a river for my new family in a community that understands what living is really all about.

Growing my own food has always fascinated me. I wonder if we could install a wind generator there after the exodus. Maybe some solar panels.

And a live music and performance club. Gotta have one of those.
02:52 October 29, 2011 by reallybigdog
All that means is that Germany will replace that deficit with immigrants much like England, however by 2060 England will be 75% immigrants and English will be its 2nd language after Hindi. Germany on the other hand will swing towards being over ridden by the Turks and oh yes soccer will be a real treat then!!
10:41 October 29, 2011 by Bigbobswinden
When you live among people of other faiths or culture you will find they are human just like you.,They have the same hopes and aspirations for their children. Learn to live with others, they have much to offer.

As for the war, if we never have another it will be to soon. I am ashamed of much our politicians do in the name of security or freedom.
12:16 October 29, 2011 by strahlungsamt
Why is this a surprise? Between 400 euro jobs with no pensions, people living in small apartments in cities like Munich or Dusseldorf (where finding affordable accommodation is nearly impossible), Hartz IV and no job prospects for the majority of non professionals (80% of the population), OF COURSE nobody wants to start a big family.

Get real Germany! It's not that people don't want kids, It's because they often can't.
12:41 October 29, 2011 by StoutViking
The population won't shrink, the Greens/Reds will make sure to replace it with "import".
13:31 October 29, 2011 by GolfAlphaYankee
children can give joy and add a since of purpose to life but they used to be (and still are for 3rd world countries) old-age pillars or an investment if you will: the more you have the better your chances to be 'attended' to in your twilight years ..... but since we think we will be financially independent till the end ... having many children is less appealing.

maybe young couples would be more willing to have children if the burden (financial and in time) of rising them is shared with grand parents?
14:47 October 29, 2011 by michael4096
@Frenemy - I trust you were joking, just the thought of returning to the realpolitik of 100 years ago makes me shudder

@strahlungsamt - isn't it the other way around? As people get more free money they have fewer kids. Its those without the money to spend on themselves that are having kids

Forecasting long-term social dynamics is fun but pretty futile. Many people can't even describe today's society correctly when all you need to do is look out the window
19:38 October 29, 2011 by Frenemy
@michael4096: Nope, I wasn't joking. But I also wasn't advocating a return to 1914.

I'm just hoping that contemporary politicians will dispense with childish notions such as "we can all just get along", and that nation-states will somehow act with the "greater good" in mind...
01:05 October 30, 2011 by DavidtheNorseman
@DoctorEconomy - I'm inclined to agree. Why not use the considerable Germanic intellectual currency to develop spacious, sustainable population patterns. Most folks would like a hectare of yard (or a lot more if they are the Jaeger type) and pleasant spacious living rather than the uber-urbanization that seems to be the trend. Simply importing populations to continue population increase seems a bit of a recipe for long-term failure. BTW the percentage of children *worldwide* is decreasing (I take the projections with a grain of salt, but look at the numbers from 1950 - 2010) : http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp
06:58 October 30, 2011 by heyheyhey
When there were only 2 billion humans crawling around on this earth there were too many. Now we have 8 billion, and we worry about a decreasing population size??????

What is wrong with this picture. we NEED to decrease the human population by at least 50%.

STOP BREEDING!
10:17 October 30, 2011 by nolibs
Comment removed by The Local for breach of our terms.
12:05 October 30, 2011 by flipinwotsit
@englishted.

lol...no way. his names Clint and he´s a great kid....he´s worth all our dosh..
22:07 October 30, 2011 by farmy
@ Gretl

When it comes to population, you and I are in full agreement. The Germans need to take lessons from the German immigrants of America in the 1800s. With their super large families, they turned America into the greatest country in the world in a short time. As far as food production, the biggest problem in the worlds Caucasian countries is food surplus, which has led to unwise decisions to turn food into fuels.
Today's headlines
Woodcarving champions - in pictures
Photo: DPA

Woodcarving champions - in pictures

Chainsaws, wood planes and sand paper were out over the weekend in Saxony-Anhalt where more than 30 artists competed in the International Woodcarving Championships. READ  

Hamburg could treat infected Ebola doctor
Liberian health workers in protective clothing bury an Ebola victim in early July. Photo: DPA

Hamburg could treat infected Ebola doctor

A World Health Organisation doctor infected with the deadly Ebola virus while trying to help stop it spreading through West Africa could travel to a Hamburg clinic for treatment. READ  

Germany evacuates embassy in Libya
Black smoke billowing from a storage depot of fuel that was hit by a rocket the night before near the airport in Tripoli on July 28th. Photo: EPA/SABRI ELMHEDWI

Germany evacuates embassy in Libya

UPDATE: Germany pulled its embassy staff out of Tripoli on Monday, a day after advising all its citizens currently in Libya to leave the strife-torn country immediately. READ  

Police kill fleeing drug dealer with bad shot
Photo: DPA

Police kill fleeing drug dealer with bad shot

A policeman is being investigated for manslaughter after he shot a fleeing man, wanted on drug charges, in the back of the head. The officer claimed he had aimed for his legs. READ  

Germany's students fail to graduate in time
A German student protests against the Bologna reforms in Mainz in 2010. Photo: DPA

Germany's students fail to graduate in time

Leaked figures show the average student in Germany still takes around four years to complete a bachelor's degree, suggesting controversial reforms to higher education have so far failed to cut down the number of Germany's perpetual students. READ  

Lawmakers earn millions on the side
Bavarian lawmaker Peter Gauweiler made almost €1 million on the side. Photo: DPA

Lawmakers earn millions on the side

A quarter of all politicians in the German Parliament are making additional income on top of their parliamentary salary, a transparency group said on Saturday. Thirteen lawmakers have made more than €100,000 in the last few months. READ  

Schweinsteiger sorry for holiday video
Schweinsteiger has apologized after the video of him on holiday was posted on YouTube. Photo: DPA

Schweinsteiger sorry for holiday video

UPDATE: Germany’s World Cup winning star Bastian Schweinsteiger has apologized after a video emerged of him on YouTube leading a chant insulting Borussia Dortmund supporters and players. READ  

Sale stopped of oldest message in a bottle
Konrad Fischer with his find. Photo: DPA

Sale stopped of oldest message in a bottle

UPDATE: A fisherman who found the world's oldest message in a bottle tossed into the sea in northern Germany has failed in his attempt to sell it on eBay. The auction was stopped at the last minute. READ  

JobTalk Germany
Job seekers frustrated with application wait
Photo: DPA

Job seekers frustrated with application wait

A new YouGov survey shows job seekers in Germany are exasperated with the application process, complaining about poor job adverts and slow responses. Recruiters agree. READ  

Germany's biggest tabloid attacks Islam
Bild editor-in-chief Kai Diekmann said there was no room for such comments in Bild publications but stopped short of an apology. Photo: DPA

Germany's biggest tabloid attacks Islam

Germany's biggest newspaper, Bild, was forced to climb down over the weekend after a highly critical and controversial comment piece which attacked Islam as a barrier to integration appeared in its Sunday sister paper. READ  

RECEIVE OUR NEWSLETTER AND ALERTS
Photo: Bundesarchiv/Bild 183-S45825
Culture
Germany puts 700,000 WWI docs online
Photo: DPA
Society
This man wants to give all of us €12,000 a year
Photo: DPA
Education
Top university switches master's courses to English
instagram.com/gotzemario
Gallery
Germany's World Cup stars share their holiday photos
Travel
Plans unveiled for bike trail along former Iron Curtain
Photo: DPA
Sport
Yoga helped Jogi's boys bring World Cup home
Photo: DPA
National
Pressure on police over anti-Semitic protests
Photo: DPA
Gallery
The Local List: 12 best words in German
Photo: DPA
Politics
View from Germany: 'Nobody will win in an economic war with Russia'
Photo: DPA
Gallery
German Bucket List: How many of these can you tick off?
Photo: Europeana.de 1914 - 1918
Gallery
A German soldier's life behind WWI lines
Photo: Shutterstock
Features
Some of the most embarrassing mistakes you can make in German
Education
Raising the bar for law & business in Germany
Photo: DPA
Business & Money
JobTalk: All you need to know about working in Germany
Photo: DPA
Features
The Local List Archive - Your guide to all things German
National
Share news tips with The Local Germany
Sponsored Article
Bilingual school turning education on its head
Sponsored Article
CurrencyFair: Why it pays when making overseas transfers
Latest news from The Local in Austria

More news from Austria at thelocal.at

Latest news from The Local in Switzerland

More news from Switzerland at thelocal.ch

Latest news from The Local in Denmark

More news from Denmark at thelocal.dk

Latest news from The Local in Spain

More news from Spain at thelocal.es

Latest news from The Local in France

More news from France at thelocal.fr

Latest news from The Local in Italy

More news from Italy at thelocal.it

Latest news from The Local in Norway

More news from Norway at thelocal.no

Latest news from The Local in Sweden

More news from Sweden at thelocal.se

3,219
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd