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Climate experts warn of extremely cold winters
Photo: DPA

Climate experts warn of extremely cold winters

Published: 17 Nov 2010 10:16 GMT+01:00
Updated: 17 Nov 2010 10:16 GMT+01:00

Strong disturbances in air stream flows would be the main reason behind frosty weather, said Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Ice melting in the eastern Arctic Ocean could create warmer layers of air that would in turn change air flows, he said.

“Should it occur these disturbances would triple the possibility of an extremely cold winter in Europe and northern Asia,” he said.

“Hard winters like last year’s or in 2005-2006 do not defy the premise of global warming, but rather confirm it.”

Petoukhov and his colleagues at the institute supported their theory with simulations by supercomputers.

They focused on the Barents and Kara Seas north of Norway and Russia, where drastic shrinkage of the ice sheet was recorded in the winter of 2005-2006, a bitterly cold weather period in Europe.

“Our simulations showed a clear non-linear reaction of air temperature and wind when we shrank the ice sheet on the computer,” he said.

Click here for The Local's weather forecast.

DAPD/ka

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Your comments about this article

12:06 November 17, 2010 by Carlos Hausner
It's a win-win situation. If the winters turn out to be warm then that'll be down to climate change too. Whatever the weather it's always down to AGW!
17:41 November 17, 2010 by FreiburgandCambridge
I blame it on Al Qaeda,..... no, hold on, Al Niño, or maybe it Al Gore's fault...??

So confusing!!
19:05 November 17, 2010 by dbohnenk73
Comment removed by The Local for breach of our terms.
20:39 November 17, 2010 by Doogle
Since when has the climate ever been static? How do they explain the last 7 ice ages and corresponding warm periods? Seems to me that whatever happens to the climate (a) it is a Bad Thing and (b) it is Your Fault.

Man Made Global Warming/Climate Change/ and now Climate Change Disruption is an article of faith, which requires the penance of man ( and his money ) to solve. Hmm, wonder who funds their grants?
23:49 November 17, 2010 by ovalle3.14
@FreiburgandCambridge: Al Gore + El Niño = Al Niño
04:47 November 18, 2010 by deutschamer
It is a fact that CO2 absorbs infrared (IR) energy and re-emits it, some in the direction of the earth surface, and some toward outer space. It can be shown mathematically that for every doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, the average global temperature will increase by 1.2 degrees C for a completely static atmosphere with no convection or clouds. With this increase, the CO2 could double many times with no serious consequences.

But as we know, the atmosphere is not static. It is a very complex system. So the question is, does the complex climate system dampen out the effect of increased CO2 concentration (negative feedback) or does it amplify the effect of increased CO2 (positive feedback). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the climate system provides positive feedback to the increase in CO2 concentrations. They claim that the average global temperature will increase anywhere from 3-6 degrees C for each doubling of CO2 concentration.

The climate is way to complicated to be able to do a closed form calculation as can be done with a static atmosphere, so the IPCC uses computer climate models to simulate the future based on various scenarios of CO2 increases. The problem is, their models have so far failed to predict the future accurately out a decade or so. They then "fix" their models and say ok now the models are more accurate. A decade or so later, the models still failed to predict, and so they fix the models again.

The average global temperature has increased about 1 degree C in the last 150 years. Big deal. Of course the IPCC says that increase will accelerate based on their computer models

A red flag for me in the prediction of the climate scientists, is that virtually every place on earth will be worse off with global warning. No place will be better. Not even norther Canada or Russia.

For those who have worked in industry as scientists and engineers, the climate scientists appear to be amateurish. They do not have adequate quality assurance or configuration management of their databases or analytical processes. They do not have a rigorous oversight process by truly independent experts. Worst of all, they seem to be ideologically driven. For governments to be taking drastic action for something as uncertain as global warming is absurd. The science is not settled. Some would have you believe it is as settled as the fact that the earth is round, i.e. a sphere. That is a lie that upsets many like myself.
17:46 November 19, 2010 by Adrian Vance
CO2 is a trace gas in air and insignificant by definition. It is a poor absorber of IR. Water vapor is seven times better and has 80 times as many molecules for 560 times the net heating effect. Water vapor is responsible for 99.9% of all atmospheric heating.

We are long overdue for a major decline in Earth average temperature as shown by the Vostok Antarctic ice studies. Svante Arrhenius determined CO could not be used to heat the atmosphere in the 19th century and published a paper on it in the German physics journal "Physique." Anthropogenic global warming is a political hoax to scare the people into paying more taxes and bowing to the elected ruling class.

You too can speak "Conservative" free: See: http://adrianvance.blogspot.com "Two Minute Conservative," daily 300 word, two minute hot topic intros for broadcasters, opinion page editors and dinner table illuminators. Also on Kindle as "The Two Minute Conservative." Read, speak and drive liberal progressives nuts.
19:59 November 20, 2010 by DrGideonPolya
In circumstances of dire threat from disease sane people turn to advice from top medical experts. Indeed in Australia recently a couple with naturopathic beliefs were sent to jail for manslaughter because they did not seek expert medical help for their sick child.

However when it comes to the greenhouse effect (discovered by Tyndall in the 19th century) and man-made climate change (obvious to scientists back in about 1990) the public debate is dominated by non-scientist politicians, non-scientist fossil fuel lobbyists, non-scientist journalists and uncredentialled anonymous bloggers (as in this thread).

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam. Manchester, East Anglia and Oxford Universities, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany) says we must cease CO2 pollution by 2050 if we are to have a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise. Assuming "all men are created equal" this means that high per capita pollution countries like the US and Australia must cease by about 2020, and Germany must cease by about 2035 (Google "Terra quasi-incognita Beyond the 2°C Line")..

Professor Schellnhuber also says that we must return the atmospheric CO2 concentration from the current damaging and dangerous 392 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of about 300 ppm as soon as possible (Google 300 ppm CO2).

A society that prefers the advice of corrupt, non-scientist politicians and fossil fuel lobbyists to that of its top scientists is headed for disaster, just like the parents who killed their sick child by not seeking expert medical advice.
22:20 November 20, 2010 by wxman
Methinks the "Dr" is not one of the geophysical sciences, such as myself. I have been a meteorologist for 35 years and a climatologist for 27 years. Any fool knows that increases in atmospheric CO2 lag increases in temperature. If anything, that means increasing temperatures cause increasing CO2 levels, not the other way around. Now, go to your room and sit in the corner.
10:04 November 23, 2010 by P Gosselin
LOL!

Just a short time ago, the very same climatologists claimed the exact opposite...lack of snow in the Alps, rare snow in the lowlands, warm and mild winters.

Now cold is the new warm!

Can't these guys make up their minds? Funny how their new predictions come out just before the cold arrives. These "climatologists are charlatans who are bilking the taxpayers. This is what happens when you take physicists off the streets, buy them expensive super-computers, and give them a license to forecast.
17:32 November 26, 2010 by Johnny Cash
The chemtrails that you see in the skies of Germany will fix all these problems. Sleep tight Germany your government has the situation under control.
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