• Germany's news in English
 

Climate experts warn of extremely cold winters

Published: 17 Nov 2010 10:16 GMT+01:00

Strong disturbances in air stream flows would be the main reason behind frosty weather, said Vladimir Petoukhov of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

Ice melting in the eastern Arctic Ocean could create warmer layers of air that would in turn change air flows, he said.

“Should it occur these disturbances would triple the possibility of an extremely cold winter in Europe and northern Asia,” he said.

“Hard winters like last year’s or in 2005-2006 do not defy the premise of global warming, but rather confirm it.”

Petoukhov and his colleagues at the institute supported their theory with simulations by supercomputers.

They focused on the Barents and Kara Seas north of Norway and Russia, where drastic shrinkage of the ice sheet was recorded in the winter of 2005-2006, a bitterly cold weather period in Europe.

“Our simulations showed a clear non-linear reaction of air temperature and wind when we shrank the ice sheet on the computer,” he said.

Click here for The Local's weather forecast.

DAPD/ka

The Local (news@thelocal.de)

Your comments about this article

12:06 November 17, 2010 by Carlos Hausner
It's a win-win situation. If the winters turn out to be warm then that'll be down to climate change too. Whatever the weather it's always down to AGW!
17:41 November 17, 2010 by FreiburgandCambridge
I blame it on Al Qaeda,..... no, hold on, Al Niño, or maybe it Al Gore's fault...??

So confusing!!
19:05 November 17, 2010 by dbohnenk73
Comment removed by The Local for breach of our terms.
20:39 November 17, 2010 by Doogle
Since when has the climate ever been static? How do they explain the last 7 ice ages and corresponding warm periods? Seems to me that whatever happens to the climate (a) it is a Bad Thing and (b) it is Your Fault.

Man Made Global Warming/Climate Change/ and now Climate Change Disruption is an article of faith, which requires the penance of man ( and his money ) to solve. Hmm, wonder who funds their grants?
23:49 November 17, 2010 by ovalle3.14
@FreiburgandCambridge: Al Gore + El Niño = Al Niño
04:47 November 18, 2010 by deutschamer
It is a fact that CO2 absorbs infrared (IR) energy and re-emits it, some in the direction of the earth surface, and some toward outer space. It can be shown mathematically that for every doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, the average global temperature will increase by 1.2 degrees C for a completely static atmosphere with no convection or clouds. With this increase, the CO2 could double many times with no serious consequences.

But as we know, the atmosphere is not static. It is a very complex system. So the question is, does the complex climate system dampen out the effect of increased CO2 concentration (negative feedback) or does it amplify the effect of increased CO2 (positive feedback). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that the climate system provides positive feedback to the increase in CO2 concentrations. They claim that the average global temperature will increase anywhere from 3-6 degrees C for each doubling of CO2 concentration.

The climate is way to complicated to be able to do a closed form calculation as can be done with a static atmosphere, so the IPCC uses computer climate models to simulate the future based on various scenarios of CO2 increases. The problem is, their models have so far failed to predict the future accurately out a decade or so. They then "fix" their models and say ok now the models are more accurate. A decade or so later, the models still failed to predict, and so they fix the models again.

The average global temperature has increased about 1 degree C in the last 150 years. Big deal. Of course the IPCC says that increase will accelerate based on their computer models

A red flag for me in the prediction of the climate scientists, is that virtually every place on earth will be worse off with global warning. No place will be better. Not even norther Canada or Russia.

For those who have worked in industry as scientists and engineers, the climate scientists appear to be amateurish. They do not have adequate quality assurance or configuration management of their databases or analytical processes. They do not have a rigorous oversight process by truly independent experts. Worst of all, they seem to be ideologically driven. For governments to be taking drastic action for something as uncertain as global warming is absurd. The science is not settled. Some would have you believe it is as settled as the fact that the earth is round, i.e. a sphere. That is a lie that upsets many like myself.
17:46 November 19, 2010 by Adrian Vance
CO2 is a trace gas in air and insignificant by definition. It is a poor absorber of IR. Water vapor is seven times better and has 80 times as many molecules for 560 times the net heating effect. Water vapor is responsible for 99.9% of all atmospheric heating.

We are long overdue for a major decline in Earth average temperature as shown by the Vostok Antarctic ice studies. Svante Arrhenius determined CO could not be used to heat the atmosphere in the 19th century and published a paper on it in the German physics journal "Physique." Anthropogenic global warming is a political hoax to scare the people into paying more taxes and bowing to the elected ruling class.

You too can speak "Conservative" free: See: http://adrianvance.blogspot.com "Two Minute Conservative," daily 300 word, two minute hot topic intros for broadcasters, opinion page editors and dinner table illuminators. Also on Kindle as "The Two Minute Conservative." Read, speak and drive liberal progressives nuts.
19:59 November 20, 2010 by DrGideonPolya
In circumstances of dire threat from disease sane people turn to advice from top medical experts. Indeed in Australia recently a couple with naturopathic beliefs were sent to jail for manslaughter because they did not seek expert medical help for their sick child.

However when it comes to the greenhouse effect (discovered by Tyndall in the 19th century) and man-made climate change (obvious to scientists back in about 1990) the public debate is dominated by non-scientist politicians, non-scientist fossil fuel lobbyists, non-scientist journalists and uncredentialled anonymous bloggers (as in this thread).

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Potsdam. Manchester, East Anglia and Oxford Universities, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany) says we must cease CO2 pollution by 2050 if we are to have a 67% chance of avoiding a catastrophic 2C temperature rise. Assuming "all men are created equal" this means that high per capita pollution countries like the US and Australia must cease by about 2020, and Germany must cease by about 2035 (Google "Terra quasi-incognita Beyond the 2°C Line")..

Professor Schellnhuber also says that we must return the atmospheric CO2 concentration from the current damaging and dangerous 392 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of about 300 ppm as soon as possible (Google 300 ppm CO2).

A society that prefers the advice of corrupt, non-scientist politicians and fossil fuel lobbyists to that of its top scientists is headed for disaster, just like the parents who killed their sick child by not seeking expert medical advice.
22:20 November 20, 2010 by wxman
Methinks the "Dr" is not one of the geophysical sciences, such as myself. I have been a meteorologist for 35 years and a climatologist for 27 years. Any fool knows that increases in atmospheric CO2 lag increases in temperature. If anything, that means increasing temperatures cause increasing CO2 levels, not the other way around. Now, go to your room and sit in the corner.
10:04 November 23, 2010 by P Gosselin
LOL!

Just a short time ago, the very same climatologists claimed the exact opposite...lack of snow in the Alps, rare snow in the lowlands, warm and mild winters.

Now cold is the new warm!

Can't these guys make up their minds? Funny how their new predictions come out just before the cold arrives. These "climatologists are charlatans who are bilking the taxpayers. This is what happens when you take physicists off the streets, buy them expensive super-computers, and give them a license to forecast.
17:32 November 26, 2010 by Johnny Cash
The chemtrails that you see in the skies of Germany will fix all these problems. Sleep tight Germany your government has the situation under control.
Today's headlines
Train strikes
Train drivers confirm new strikes
Trains cancelled. Photo: DPA

Train drivers confirm new strikes

German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) boss Claus Weselsky said on Wednesday that his members would walk off the job after DB refused to accept an ultimatum he issued earlier in the week, although he did not say when or for how long they would strike. READ  

Judge rules smoking senior can't be evicted
Friedhelm Adolfs. Photo: DPA

Judge rules smoking senior can't be evicted

The Supreme Court (BGH) has decided that a landlord had no right to throw out the man being called "Germany's second-most famous smoker after Helmut Schmidt" without due notice. READ  

Fearlessly Jewish on the streets of Munich

Fearlessly Jewish on the streets of Munich

While the world watched with shock as a Jewish man encountered abuse on the streets of Paris for wearing a kippah, The Local talks to a Munich man who has been doing the same for two years - with surprising results. READ  

'Bomb' sent from Germany to Sweden

'Bomb' sent from Germany to Sweden

Swedish police are checking a suspicious package apparently sent from Germany to a local newspaper in Sweden that previously published controversial Muhammad cartoons. READ  

Ukraine crisis
Government condemns Ukraine rebel advance
Ukrainian government troops ride a tank on the way out of Debaltseve on Wednesday. Photo: DPA

Government condemns Ukraine rebel advance

The German government said on Wednesday that pro-Russian rebels' advance into the eastern Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was a serious breach of ceasefire terms agreed last week in Minsk. READ  

The Local List
Germany and the seven deadly sins

Germany and the seven deadly sins

Beer, chocolate, car keys! Lock them all away, say Germans, who more than half say they partake in Lent, the seven-week fasting period before Easter, but more for health rather than religious reasons. READ  

Schäuble rejects Greek bailout without reforms
Wolfgang Schäuble at negotiations in Brussels on Tuesday. Photo: DPA

Schäuble rejects Greek bailout without reforms

UPDATE: A spokesman for Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said on Wednesday that any extension of international loans to Greece beyond the end of the month was "inextricably" linked to reforms agreed to by Athens under its current bailout. READ  

Politician wants last call on late-night beers
Day drinking it is! Photo: DPA

Politician wants last call on late-night beers

A municipal politician is saying that Berlin needs to reconsider its alcohol sales rules and is proposing a ban on booze sales between 10pm and 5am. READ  

Police find 104 rabbits in Stuttgart flat
Imagine ten times this many rabbits. Photo: Shutterstock

Police find 104 rabbits in Stuttgart flat

Police in Stuttgart were in for a hopping surprise when they searched a flat on Tuesday and found it full to bursting with furry mammals. READ  

German reporter 'spy' arrested in Mozambique
A South African National Defense Force sodlier takes part in a training exercise as part of Operation Rhino in the Kruger National Park, South Africa's flagship national wildlife park on 19 July 2011

German reporter 'spy' arrested in Mozambique

Two journalists, a German and a Swede, were held briefly by police on Monday while investigating rhino poaching in southern Mozambique. READ  

RECEIVE OUR NEWSLETTER AND ALERTS
Photo: Police
Rhineland
Student driver crashes tank into family garden.
Photo: DPA
Politics
There was a notable absence at the Anti-Semitism Commission
Sponsored Article
Tourist or lifer: what sort of expat are you?
National
How Dresden bombing still divides Germany, 70 years on
Sponsored Article
Are you an American expat? How to face FATCA
Photo: DPA
Gallery
Take a cute break with this gallery of baby animals
International
What's keeping UK expats from voting?
Photo: DPA
National
Terror alert at a new high. Should you be worried?
Gallery
The best regional foods TTIP opponents want to protect
Photo: DPA
Features
All you ever needed to know about Pegida
Photo: Shutterstock
Culture
This cosplayer did not think his plan through
National
Europe in statistics - from Spain to Sweden
Gallery
Top 12 German idioms
Culture
10 top tips for partying in Germany
Photo: DPA
Technology
What does the Chancellor see as the future of the internet?
Photo: DPA
Business & Money
JobTalk: All you need to know about working in Germany
National
Share news tips with The Local Germany
Latest news from The Local in Austria

More news from Austria at thelocal.at

Latest news from The Local in Switzerland

More news from Switzerland at thelocal.ch

Latest news from The Local in Denmark

More news from Denmark at thelocal.dk

Latest news from The Local in Spain

More news from Spain at thelocal.es

Latest news from The Local in France

More news from France at thelocal.fr

Latest news from The Local in Italy

More news from Italy at thelocal.it

Latest news from The Local in Norway

More news from Norway at thelocal.no

Latest news from The Local in Sweden

More news from Sweden at thelocal.se

3,526
jobs available
Toytown Germany
Germany's English-speaking crowd